First Word

Critical PMI data release in next week determine whether 'PMI bottom' thesis tracking....

Equities have enjoyed a relatively solid earnings season (76% beating, 191 reported, and AMZN not harming risk-on) and October overall (+1.4% MTD).  But the S&P 500 put in its all-time high on July 26, 2019 at 3,028 and while the current 3,022 is not too far away, the burden is on the stock market to prove a bull market is still in place.

Of course, our clients know that our thesis remains that 'markets going nowhere' (20 months) have resolved 3 of 3 times (since WWII) with massive upside breakouts.  And this remains our central view and why we believe S&P 500 will surpass 3,125 by YE.  

- But this thesis is predicated on the PMIs bottoming now (October or even November)

- And this turn in cyclical momentum AND coupled with Fed easing and coordinate global central bank easing AND record cash on sidelines, is a formula for a melt-up rally.

POINT 1: CLUE PMI BOTTOMED --> LOOK AT PROGRESSIVE RALLY OF CYCLICALLY SENSITIVE STOCKSThere is a steady growing participation and outperformance by sectors/indices sensitive to PMIs.  Specifically:
- Semis started outperforming 5/28
- DAX (Germany, deep cyclical) started 8/16
- Capital Goods (CAT, etc) started 10/21

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POINT 2: CLUE PMI BOTTOMED --> LOOK AT ISM NEW ORDERS/INVENTORY W...

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