COVID-19 UPDATE: USA COVID-19 cases could be sub 10,000 by end of August. USA > ROW? Singapore case prevalence exceeds Europe.

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.


Total USA COVID-19 cases came in at 49,820, which is up from 1D ago (typical midweek) but is down ~9,000 from 7D ago.  The 7D ago delta is the key and as we mentioned in prior notes, is a proxy for the R0.  If R0 < 1.0 is similar to seeing 7D delta negative.

- the most noticeable trend is the 7D delta decline is accelerating
- 5,000 or so last week
- 10,000 this week

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Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project


Daily cases only 2,000 by the end of August?
We made a simple table below. This is forecast, assuming daily cases are 10,000 lower vs 7D ago.

- By the end of August, USA might have 2,000 cases
- 10,000 7D delta assumes no improvement in R0


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Source: Fundstrat


By the way, this would track what we saw in the NY tristate area.  As shown below, it took 25 days for cases to fall 75% and 46 to fall 90%.  Cases peaked on July 17th in the US.

The video in this report is only accessible to members
Source: FundstratSTRATEGY: If we see a crushing decline in cases in the next few weeks, the rotation will be violentTHOUGHT: If US follows the above path for cases, we should see a violent rotation in stocks.  I have been finding investors closed to the idea of buying Cyclicals, because many have a 1-3 month time horizon and in this period o...

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