COVID-19 UPDATE: USA COVID-19 cases collapse to 42,017, -13,000 vs 1D ago and -12,810 vs 7D ago. Case declines accelerating even as policymakers still panic

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.


STRATEGY: Despite headlines of rampant spread, COVID-19 is slowing in the US
Total USA COVID-19 cases collapsed to 42,017, down -13,000 from 1D ago and down 12,810 from 7D ago.  In fact, it is the fewest number of new cases since June 29th.  The decline in COVID-19 cases is building downside momentum, shifting from a stubborn plateau a few weeks ago, to now seeing an accelerating fall.

The epicenter, FL, CA, AZ, TX are doing even better as shown below.  Their daily cases are ~40% off their peaks.  The retrenchment of COVID-19 in these states is gaining momentum.  In fact, their case profile currently looks like a textbook match to what we saw in NY tristate/MA/RI.

COVID-19 UPDATE: USA COVID-19 cases collapse to 42,017, -13,000 vs 1D ago and -12,810 vs 7D ago. Case declines accelerating even as policymakers still panic


Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project


If F-CAT states track NY tristate, we should see USA cases down 75% in the next two weeks and down 90% by early September.  So, the next few weeks are going to be important. 

COVID-19 UPDATE: USA COVID-19 cases collapse to 42,017, -13,000 vs 1D ago and -12,810 vs 7D ago. Case declines accelerating even as policymakers still panic


Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project

Even USA daily deaths have slowed a bit, but this tends to be chunky and is influenced by some weekday seasonality.  

COVID-19 UPDATE: USA COVID-19 cases collapse to 42,017, -13,000 vs 1D ago and -12,810 vs 7D ago. Case declines accelerating even as policymakers still panic



But like the daily cases, the daily deaths are down week over week, a real and growing break in the pattern.  So, the evidence is pretty conclusive that this June-July surge is now turning into a full blown retreat.

COVID-19 UPDATE: USA COVID-19 cases collapse to 42,017, -13,000 vs 1D ago and -12,810 vs 7D ago. Case declines accelerating even as policymakers still panic


Source: Fundstrat


But policymakers are still in a panic and will over-react…
This is also an important juncture for investors.  Policymakers are still citing the current high level of cases and talking about new centers for spread.  But as we have written for the past few weeks, most of the US has contemporaneous spreads and every state took restrictive measures.  So, we are now seeing the “payoff” now and this should lead to a crashing down of cases. 


COVID-19 UPDATE: USA COVID-19 cases collapse to 42,017, -13,000 vs 1D ago and -12,810 vs 7D ago. Case declines accelerating even as policymakers still panic


https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/dr-birx-warns-u-s-is-in-new-phase-of-coronavirus-89473605859

If cases are falling and we see overall fear abate, as the disease slows, we expect consumer confidence to strengthen.  Hence, this is an important juncture.  One has to decide whether they believe the virus growth is slowing.  If one believes this, this argues for a cyclical rotation.

Of course, this remains a very mysterious and dangerous disease.  And we have continually underestimated its endurance.



POINT 1: USA cases collapse to 42,017, lowest since June 29th and -13,000 vs 1D ago
Total USA COVID-19 cases collapsed today to 42,017, the lowest number of new cases since June 29th.  Our figures reflect the adjustment for Texas, which reported 2 days’ worth of cases today.  TX itself came in with 5,303 cases which is lower than 6,226 yesterday.

COVID-19 UPDATE: USA COVID-19 cases collapse to 42,017, -13,000 vs 1D ago and -12,810 vs 7D ago. Case declines accelerating even as policymakers still panic


Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project


For the past few weeks, we have commented that it is better to look at the 7D delta, or the daily cases compared to a week ago.  This chart shows the utter collapse in cases being seen.  For 12 consecutive days, cases were down but as shown, the decline is happening at an accelerating rate.

COVID-19 UPDATE: USA COVID-19 cases collapse to 42,017, -13,000 vs 1D ago and -12,810 vs 7D ago. Case declines accelerating even as policymakers still panic


Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project



The epicenter, FL, CA, AZ and TX, or F-CAT, is seeing a crushing collapse in cases now.  This chart below shows the contribution of cases by various state sub-groups.  And as you can see, F-CAT (blue) was leading for so long but now cases are collapsing.

COVID-19 UPDATE: USA COVID-19 cases collapse to 42,017, -13,000 vs 1D ago and -12,810 vs 7D ago. Case declines accelerating even as policymakers still panic


Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project


We have updated our dashboard below (from chartbook). And as this highlights, we are seeing a pretty widespread retreat in cases.  Overall, USA COVID-19 cases are off 28% from their peak and that was 17 days ago.

– F-CAT are all seeing cases >40% off their recent highs, so ahead of the USA overall figure.

COVID-19 UPDATE: USA COVID-19 cases collapse to 42,017, -13,000 vs 1D ago and -12,810 vs 7D ago. Case declines accelerating even as policymakers still panic


Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project



6 states reported sizable 1D increases 
Missouri       1,047 vs 582 (1D) +465
Virginia         1,324 vs 981        +343
Michigan          604 vs 426       +178
Hawaii              206 vs   45      +161
Arkansas         787 vs 637      +150
Idaho              331 vs 230          +101
Total 6 states                      +1,398

6 states reported sizable 1D decreases
California      5,739 vs 9,032 (1D) -3,293
Louisiana      1,099 vs 3,467        -2,368
Florida           4,752 vs 7,104       -2,352
Washington       632 vs 1,738     -1,106
Texas             5,303 vs 6,226        -923
Georgia         2,258 vs 3,165        -907
Total 6 states                            -10,949

COVID-19 UPDATE: USA COVID-19 cases collapse to 42,017, -13,000 vs 1D ago and -12,810 vs 7D ago. Case declines accelerating even as policymakers still panic


Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project




POINT 2: Textbook collapse in cases at F-CAT, tracking NY tristate…
The collapse in cases in F-CAT is evident below looking at the state daily case figures (each by itself) and you can see this rolling over in cases.

COVID-19 UPDATE: USA COVID-19 cases collapse to 42,017, -13,000 vs 1D ago and -12,810 vs 7D ago. Case declines accelerating even as policymakers still panic


Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project 

The path and speed of this collapse in cases are tracking the NY tristate/MA/RI template closely as shown below. In other words, this is a textbook slowing of case spread as the mitigation measures kick in.

COVID-19 UPDATE: USA COVID-19 cases collapse to 42,017, -13,000 vs 1D ago and -12,810 vs 7D ago. Case declines accelerating even as policymakers still panic


Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project 


And it comes back to this notion of perhaps these states, once they reach 12,500 cases per 1mm residents, some level of infection break point is reached.  As you can see from this chart below, the slowing of cases in CA and TX coincides with reaching the case prevalence matching CT.

COVID-19 UPDATE: USA COVID-19 cases collapse to 42,017, -13,000 vs 1D ago and -12,810 vs 7D ago. Case declines accelerating even as policymakers still panic


Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project  



County-level data shows that the spread is slowing… 45% of counties see cases >50% off their peak and rising
While some might fret that other states are seeing a renewed outbreak but this diffusion chart shows that cases are slowing.  This highlights the % of counties (based on population) where cases are 50% off their peaks.  After declining from June to end of July, you can see it start to rise again.

– and this suggests a broadening slowing of COVID-19 spread in the US.

COVID-19 UPDATE: USA COVID-19 cases collapse to 42,017, -13,000 vs 1D ago and -12,810 vs 7D ago. Case declines accelerating even as policymakers still panic


Source: Johns Hopkins




POINT 3: Re-open challenges without cure/vaccine
One reason investors remain wary of is the re-open challenges faced by industries/services that require interaction.  The MLB is a micro-economy that is worth watching (discussed yesterday) and we highlight a few more today.   The bottom line remains that until we have a cure/vaccine, the chances of any region/country seeing a sustained zero level of cases is quite low.  This is something echoed by health experts.

Even in Europe, COVID-19 cases are again rising, for basically the same reasons the US is seeing an increase — younger adults who are not practicing social distance.

COVID-19 UPDATE: USA COVID-19 cases collapse to 42,017, -13,000 vs 1D ago and -12,810 vs 7D ago. Case declines accelerating even as policymakers still panic


https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-cases-rise-in-europe-as-youth-hit-beach-and-bars-11596364200


Is this social distance fatigue? Perhaps, this article has some great insights and includes this quote from a French citizen.


COVID-19 UPDATE: USA COVID-19 cases collapse to 42,017, -13,000 vs 1D ago and -12,810 vs 7D ago. Case declines accelerating even as policymakers still panic


https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-cases-rise-in-europe-as-youth-hit-beach-and-bars-11596364200


Today, NJ Governor Phil Murphy announced new restrictions, limiting gathering to 25 (from 100) and new measures restricting school sports and requiring masks.  This is in response to a surge in cases in NJ.

COVID-19 UPDATE: USA COVID-19 cases collapse to 42,017, -13,000 vs 1D ago and -12,810 vs 7D ago. Case declines accelerating even as policymakers still panic


https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/live/coronavirus-covid19-philadelphia-nj-pa-cases-testing-updates-news-20200803.html#card-834726656

Anecdotes of other schools with cases rising can be found easily.  Below is Indiana which noted that it had already a COVID-19 positive test from day 1.

COVID-19 UPDATE: USA COVID-19 cases collapse to 42,017, -13,000 vs 1D ago and -12,810 vs 7D ago. Case declines accelerating even as policymakers still panic


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/education/2020/08/02/greenfield-student-tests-positive-covid-19-first-day-class/5567098002/


And this George sleepaway camp was open for only 6 days and by then 260 of 344 campers tested positive for COVID-19.  This is a YMCA camp in Georgia and 76% of campers contracted COVID-19.  Of these, 74% had symptoms but it is not disclosed how many became serious cases that required hospitalizations.  This took place in late June, with the closing taking place on June 27th.  So, enough time has passed for deaths and ICUs to be reported. 

– But there is zero mention of any ICUs, hospitalizations or deaths mentioned in this story.

The fact that so many campers were infected, even beyond the “attack rate” of the Diamond Princess is an argument supporting the idea that superspreaders are behind some of the greater spread seen in some cases.

COVID-19 UPDATE: USA COVID-19 cases collapse to 42,017, -13,000 vs 1D ago and -12,810 vs 7D ago. Case declines accelerating even as policymakers still panic


https://nypost.com/2020/08/02/georgia-camp-closed-due-to-260-positive-tests-for-covid-19/?utm_campaign=iphone_nyp


And regarding cruises, the French Polynesia-based cruise Paul Gauguin, had to end its voyage early as just 3 days into its sailing when a passenger tested positive.  Of the 332 passengers, 148 have been isolated.  This cruise set sail from Tahiti.  But in Europe, another cruise, operated by Norwegian with 535 passengers ended its voyage after 37 crew/passengers tested positive.

COVID-19 UPDATE: USA COVID-19 cases collapse to 42,017, -13,000 vs 1D ago and -12,810 vs 7D ago. Case declines accelerating even as policymakers still panic


https://thepointsguy.com/news/paul-gauguin-cruise-ship-covid-crisis/?tid=curated_01&utm_uniqid=*%7CUNIQID%7C*&utm_source=TPG%20Daily%20Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=1409843&utm_usr=5bf340e812923ec22538f572a886660448b688b7e6f5bbfd41be58452be67d07&utm_msg=a9f51ec8356d40a1bfc47891d97a75b2&utm_date=2020-08-03

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