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COVID-19 UPDATE: USA cases see new high, not 2nd wave, but an F-CAT wave (FL, CA, AZ, TX). Stocks are “consolidating” and we do not view this as a top.

June 25, 2020
COVID-19 UPDATE: USA cases see new high, not 2nd wave, but an F-CAT wave (FL, CA, AZ, TX).  Stocks are “consolidating” and we do not view this as a top.

COVID-19 confirmed cases surged again on Wednesday, rising +5,083 to a new high of 38,296.  I think it is important to appreciate this surge is not really a second wave, but really a surge in cases from states which have seen a surge in cases since early June.  One way to see is the chart below, creating 3 composites for the US daily cases:

- NY/NJ/CT which was the original epicenter
- F-CAT (Florida, CA, AZ and TX) which as we wrote about, did see imported cases which are now community transmission
- Rest of 43 states.

Looked at this way, the NY tristate has crushed downwards case growth.  But F-CAT is seeing a parabolic rise.  And as we have commented in the past few weeks, we believe the "accelerant" is the ongoing nationwide protests, more so than the re-opening of the states.

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