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COVID-19 UPDATE:  Two-thirds of USA at “infection break point”  = good.  Rising tax rates –> higher capex.

As we close out the week, the best development is the sustained downturn in cases seen in the USA (11 consecutive days cases down vs 7D ago) and equally true of the current epicenter of FL, CA, AZ and TX, or F-CAT.  F-CAT and NY tristate and about 21 states, in total, have case prevalence exceeding 12,500 cases per 1mm residents.  Assuming a seroprevalence of 10X, this implies these 21 states have seen >12% of their respective population infected.  But these 21 states, or 65% of the US population, are arguably at the infection break point, or akin to being closer to herd immunity.  That is, the initial vulnerable pool of infected has been exhausted and that is good news regarding the risk of a renewed outbreak. 

Below, we discuss the situation of the other 29 states, which is 35% of the population.  Collectively, these other 29 states could see an outbreak and if we used 12,500 as the threshold, these 29 states would likely see an additional 515,000 cases.  By the way, at the current US cases reported, this is about 10 days of cases.  So, it is not like this might be years away.

Markets were understandably unnerved by this tweet from President Trump, regarding a suggestion to "delay the 2020 elections." For obvious reasons, this simply defies logic and several senior Republicans later countered these suggestions. 


COVID-19 UPDATE:  Two-thirds of USA at "infection break point"  = good.  Rising tax rates --> higher capex.
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