First Word

COVID-19 UPDATE: IHME Takeaways. The more "fear" the better the outcome. Masks as good as vaccines. Israel shows markets did not care about cases...

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.

STRATEGY: COVID-19 single most important market factor YTD in 2020 and into YE...
Looking at the first 9 months of 2020, the pandemic has been the single most important factor for markets.  The pandemic drove monetary policy, fiscal stimulus and economic and behavioral changes -- a quadfecta of impacts.  In fact, while the BIS (Bank of International Settlements) comments that Fed policy accounts for 50% of the recovery of stocks, the Fed move is all due to COVID-19.

The video in this report is only accessible to members


https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2009a.htm

And as we look into YE, COVID-19 remains the single biggest influence:

- COVID-19 vaccine/cure will affect 2020 elections
- COVID-19 daily case trends will influence Americans' behavior
- COVID-19 is behind the fiscal stimulus

So in short, COVID-19 remains a central influence.  And unfortunately, it is completely unpredictable.  Fortunately, daily deaths are trending lower and now 89% off their highs.  The moving average for daily deaths was messed up due to the Labor Day holiday closures but this week will be the true trend.  Read below (Point #3) to see what well-known COVID-19 model forecasters expect for US deaths this Winter -- hint, two very different outcomes.

The video in this report is only accessible to members
Sour...

Unlock this article with a FREE 30-Day Trial!

An FSI Pro, or FSI Macro subscription is required in order to access this content.

*Free trial available only on a monthly plan

More from the author

Disclosures (show)

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 2/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You’ve reached your limit of 2 free monthly articles. Please enter your email to unlock 1 more articles.

Already have an account? Sign In

Want to receive Regular Market Updates to your Inbox?

I am your default error :)