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COVID-19 UPDATE: Getting harder to ignore widening divergence between “cases” (new high, Sat >57,000) and “deaths” (new low 213, down 92% from highs)

July 6, 2020
COVID-19 UPDATE: Getting harder to ignore widening divergence between “cases” (new high, Sat >57,000) and “deaths” (new low 213, down 92% from highs)

Financial markets are resuming after the July 4th holiday (3-day weekend).  The S&P 500 4% gain last week, despite COVID-19 spread accelerating in the US (measured by daily cases), suggests markets may be shifting away from "cases" as the primary metric to assess the state of the pandemic in the US -- and in any case, the gains despite the pandemic setback is a "half-full" outcome. It is increasingly clear, markets are looking through cases:

- Daily deaths continue to fall and fell to a new cycle low today to 213, down 92% from the high of 2,279 seen on 4/29/2020.
- The new "epicenter" states FL, CA, AZ, TX, or F-CAT, could be rolling over in daily cases --> when they roll, COVID-19 cases will roll
- Healthcare progress continues to be a positive skew and NBC reports (see below) the White House may announce a new therapeutic study this week
- Still, most people seem to equate "case surge" = "coming calamity"

COVID-19 UPDATE: Getting harder to ignore widening divergence between "cases" (new high, Sat >57,000) and "deaths" (new low 213, down 92% from highs)
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