Retail sentiment, as gauged by the latest AAII reading, is actually HALF as bullish as it was 2 weeks ago. The level of Bears registered was 27%, the highest of the last four weeks. Thus, the spread between Bulls to Bears went from 34% to 16% in two weeks time. This gels with the Half-time show on CNBC which had a 15 minute discussion of "why" the market was rising while many of the panelists were skeptical it could last. I would add that yesterday's comments by Alix Steele, a popular anchor for Bloomberg TV showed her publicly wondering "on-air" how people could be bullish on the stock market. (As it didn't make sense to her) Overall, this kind of public disbelief is very different from the giddy optimism which is seen at market tops. Most seem to be in a state of disbelief given how quickly markets have risen to new highs. The option market is not giving us signals that stocks should peak, by showing signs of wild call option buying. Meanwhile, there continues to be no indiscriminate buying across the board and markets have been able to show healthy gains despite laggards like AAPL and TSLA. Bottom line, while human nature tells us to buy low and sell high, history has shown us that the opposite is typically how it's correct to proceed during trending markets, until evidence of deterioration arises. Happy Friday and have a good weekend All!
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Mar 22, 2024
3:36 PM ET
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