Market leadership still "early cycle" --> Delta-plus not creating "delta" vs base case as European delta-plus not driving severe hospitalizations

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STRATEGY: Delta-plus surge not creating "delta" in our base case

US daily case trends are still positive -- 7D avg 67,355 or 58% off recent peak
US daily case trends continue to be promising.  And as we noted earlier this week, it is 9 states seeing some type of rise but 41 are seeing steep declines.  Including multiple states with >80% declines in cases.

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This table is in section #1 and is sorted by states % off the recent highs.  Leading this:

- Louisiana and Florida, both 91% off their highs
- even Texas is 80% off their recent highs
- most states >80% off their highs are in the South

So naturally, given the cooling weather north, we are watching emerging case trends in the Northeast.  And as we noted, it is a mixed bag with only VT, NH, ME and maybe PA being of concern.

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Confusing but Delta --> Delta-plus is actually B.1.617.2 -->AY.4.2I have become confused about the lineage of the Delta-plus, since it is referred to as AY.4.2, but the original Delta (aka Kappa) was designated B.1.617.  Fortunately, tireless Ken compiled the lineage of the Delta-plus:- B.1.617 has 3 main sub-lineages: within them,  B.1.617.1...

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