Daily cases at 169,313 (-108,905 vs. 7D ago), current hospitalization at 144,666 (-1,861 vs. 7D ago), daily deaths at 2,058 (+202 vs. 7D ago)

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule:

Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
SKIP THURSDAY
Friday

I will be on vacation from 1/17 to 1/25, a late Christmas vacation

– we will still publish our COVID-19 daily commentary (thanks tireless Ken)
– market commentary will resume 1/26

POINT 1: Daily COVID-19 cases 169,313, down -108,905 vs 7D ago…

Current Trends — COVID-19 cases:

• Daily cases 169,313 vs 278,218 7D ago, down -108,905
• 7D positivity rate 26.5% vs 28.3% 7D ago
• Hospitalized patients 144,666, down -1.3% vs 7D ago
• Daily deaths 2,058, up 10.9% vs 7D ago

On Sunday, 15 states + Puerto Rico reported a total of 169,313 new cases, down -108,905. All but four states (TX, AZ, MO, and WV) reported lower cases. As we noted last week, some states are still facing a rise in cases, overall the US trend in cases has rolled over. The recent 7D delta in daily cases reflected this progress – 7D delta in daily cases has been negative for the last 4 days, and the 7D average has fallen to -107k.

At the state level, more states could see daily cases fall dramatically in the next 1-2 weeks. NY, NJ, and CT could be a roadmap for other states to follow. Recall, the tri-state area was the first region hit by the Omicron variant, and now is among the states with the largest decline in daily cases. Below we plotted the recent case trend for New York City, New York State, and Connecticut. As you can see, daily cases in all three are in full retreat. And for New York City, the daily new cases almost fell to the pre-Omicron levels.

7D delta in daily cases has been negative for the past 4 days, showing cases are in retreat…
The 7D delta in daily cases has been negative for the past 4 days and the 7D average has fallen to -107k. This shows that daily cases in the US are in full retreat. As we noted above, we expect the decline in 7D delta to persist — that means cases will accelerate to the downside (similar to what we have observed in South Africa and the UK) — even though some states are still facing a rise in cases.

29 states are seeing a rise in cases while 21 states + DC are seeing cases falling or about to roll over…
*** We’ve split the “Parabolic Case Tracker” into 2 tables: one where cases are falling (or about to fall), and the other where cases are rising

In these tables, we’ve included the vaccine penetration, case peak information, and the current case trend for 50 US states + DC. The table for states where cases are declining is sorted by case % off of their recent peak, while the table for states where cases are rising is sorted by the current daily cases to pre-surge daily cases multiple.

• The states with higher ranks are the states that have seen a more significant decline / rise in daily cases
• We also calculated the number of days during the recent case surge
• The US as a whole, UK, and Israel are also shown at the top as a reference

Daily deaths are still rising, while positivity rates and hospitalization seem to roll over now…
Below we show the aggregate number of patients hospitalized due to COVID, daily mortality associated with COVID, and the daily positivity rate for COVID.

– Net hospitalization just made a new all-time high and seems to start rollover. The good news is the daily mortality did not follow the same pattern as hospitalization, which shows Omicron is less deadly compared to other variants (at least so far).
– Positivity rate finally started to fall after plateauing for two weeks. It also confirms the recent decline in daily cases.

POINT 2: VACCINE: vaccination pace has slowed recently… Still more than half of eligible people have not received their booster shots…

Current Trends — Vaccinations:

• avg 1.0 million this past week vs 1.2 million last week
• overall, 25.6% received booster doses, 63.1% fully vaccinated, 75.2% 1-dose+ received

Vaccination frontier update –> all states now near or above 80% combined penetration (vaccines + infections)
*** We’ve updated the total detected infections multiplier from 4.0x to 2.5x. The CDC changed the estimate multiplier because testing has become much better and more prevalent.

Below we sorted the states by the combined penetration (vaccinations + infections). The assumption is that a state with higher combined penetration is likely to be closer to herd immunity, and therefore, less likely to see a parabolic surge in daily cases and deaths. Please note that this “combined penetration” metric can be over 100%, as infected people could also be vaccinated (actually recommended by CDC).

• Currently, all states are near or above 90% combined penetration
• Given the 2.5x multiplier, all states besides MS, WA, OR, TX, ID, MI, MO, and GA are now above 100% combined penetration (vaccines + infections). Again, this metric can be over 100%, as infected people could also be vaccinated. But 100% combined penetration does not mean that the entire population within each state is either infected or vaccinated

There were a total of 689,227 doses administered, as reported on Sunday. The daily number of vaccines administered has been down over the past week. The improvement in the case trend could play a role in influencing people’s willingness/urgency to get vaccinated. But two recent studies published by the CDC:

• COVID-19 Incidence and Death Rates Among Unvaccinated and Fully Vaccinated Adults with and Without Booster Doses During Periods of Delta and Omicron Variant Emergence
  
• Effectiveness of a Third Dose of mRNA Vaccines Against COVID-19–Associated Emergency Department and Urgent Care Encounters and Hospitalizations Among Adults During Periods of Delta and Omicron Variant Predominance

reiterated the importance of being vaccinated and receiving a booster dose. Therefore, we believe the daily number of vaccines administered remains the most important metric to track.

Below we plotted the number of people who are eligible for the booster dose and the number of people who received the booster dose over time. As you can see, more than half of eligible people have yet received their booster dose (173 million eligible, 85 million received). Hence, to convince these people to receive their booster dose remains the key.

This is the state by state data below, showing information for individuals with one dose, two doses, and booster dose.

In total, 535 million vaccine doses have been administered across the country. Specifically, 250 million Americans (75% of US population) have received at least 1 dose of the vaccine. 210 million Americans (63% of US population) are fully vaccinated. And 85 million Americans (26% of US population) received their booster shot.

POINT 3: Tracking the seasonality of COVID-19
***We’ve updated the seasonality tracker to show figures from the last 9 months, from this calendar day, in each of the last two years***

As evident by trends in 2020 and 2021, seasonality appears to play an important role in the daily cases, hospitalization, and deaths trends. Therefore, we think there might be a strong argument that COVID-19 is poised to become a seasonal virus.

The possible explanations for the seasonality we observed are:

• Outdoor Temperature: increasing indoor activities in the South vs increasing outdoor activities in the northeast during the Summer
• “Air Conditioning” Season: similar to “outdoor temperature”, more “AC” usage might facilitate the spread of the virus indoors
• Opposite effects hold true in the winter

CASES
It seems as if the main factor contributing to current case trends right now is outdoor temperature. During the Summer, outdoor activities are generally increased in the northern states as the weather becomes nicer. In southern states, on the other hand, it becomes too hot and indoor activities are increased. As such, northern state cases didn’t spike much during Summer 2020 while southern state cases did. Currently, northern state cases are showing a slight spike, especially when compared to Summer 2020. This could be attributed to the introduction of the more transmissible Delta variant and the lifting of restrictions combined with pent up demand for indoor activities.

HOSPITALIZATION
Current hospitalizations appear to be similar or less than Summer 2020 rates in most states. This is likely due to increased vaccination rates and the vaccine’s ability to reduce the severity of the virus.

DEATHS
Current death rates appear to be scattered compared to 2020 rates. This is likely due to varying vaccination rates in each state. States with higher vaccination rates seem to have lower death rates given the vaccine’s ability to reduce the severity of the virus; states with lower vaccination rates seem to have higher death rates.