IHME models show India “infections” likely plateau in past week = worst could be behind India

STRATEGY: IHME model shows India infections peaked on 4/26/2021
I just want to give everyone a heads up.  We are fans of the IHME model (founded by the Gates Foundation) as their model is used by global policymakers.

Their infection model for India shows infections in the country likely peaked on 4/26/2021, or 4 days ago.

- if correct, India is past the worst point of this wave
- if correct, economic risks have "plateaued" and will diminish

- "confirmed cases" will still rise because testing is severely lagging, but that means "cases" are a lagging indicator

STRATEGY: If correct, the cyclical trade is going to get a new "catalyst" in the coming weeks!
The key is that we might soon see evidence that India's COVID-19 situation is improving.  Likely Mumbai / Delhi show improvements first.  And then a gradual realization that the crisis is past the worst point.  

And from there, investors will see diminished economic risk.

- this should result in a new "leg up" for the Epicenter trade
- still with Energy, Industrials, Financials, Small-caps

- $XLE, $OIH, $XLI, $XLF and $IWM

Have a great weekend.

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