Telegram

Financial Research

First Word

First Word

  • First Word
October 15

This is creating distortions in CPI and economic data, as these are not normal conditions and yet, forecasters and economists are making necessary conclusions from these conditions. In an obvious way, Jamie's statement is correct but also a reminder that into 2022, we will be...

Index level alert - SPX challenging a key trend support level at its 15-dma
  • First Word
October 13

COVID-19 obliterated in 17 states = retreat accelerating. Energy still a "fat pitch"

SKIP — Federal Holiday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday STRATEGY: COVID-19 OBLITERATED IN 17 STATES = RETREAT ACCELERATING. ENERGY STILL A "FAT PITCH" _17 STATES OBLITERATION: COVID-19 CONTINUES TO RETREAT AT WHAT SEEMS AN ACCELERATING PACE…_ Tracking the path COVID-19 requires one to look at local trends. That is, national...

  • First Word
October 12

Consumer overreact to COVID + Inflation blurring = Strategy to Barbell Energy + FANG

SKIP -- Federal Holiday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday STRATEGY: CONSUMER OVERREACT TO COVID + INFLATION BLURRING = BARBELL ENERGY + FANG _TWO KEY ISSUES INTO YE --> COVID-19 PATH + INFLATION RISKS_ As we look into the final three months of 2021, the two most important market pivots/knife edge...

  • First Word
October 8

"Demand destruction" overblown. Why $80 oil today = $110 oil in 2014

To put gasoline in perspective, take a look at this chart by howmuch. net.  We highlighted gasoline share of total wallet.  And you can see that it is among the top 20 categories, but hardly the top expenditure. https://howmuch. net/articles/breakdown-average-american-spending _... SHOULDN'T WE WORRY MORE ABOUT THE SURGE IN COST...

  • First Word
October 6

Market Rebellion Conference Takeaways

Mr. Ingrand started things off by talking about the community of Market Rebels and some of the formative principles at the center of the community. There was excitement in the air as many conference goers had likely done quite well from Merck’s announcement yesterday, which Market Rebels had given intel...

  • First Word
October 5

VIX sure seems less concerned about Washington than betting markets -- is this clue that "buyers strike" might end sooner?

Tom Block, Head of Policy Strategy, calls this a classic example of a "Made in DC crisis" -- Washington has many procedures for getting this particular solution passed, but as we know, the solutions favored by Democrats are not the same as those for Republicans.  But as Tom Block hints,...

  • First Word
October 4

Markets enter October wary, S&P 500 suffering technical damage, but outperformance of Epicenter remains telling

This next chart comes from our chartbook (pdf attached) and I circled in blue the instances where cases are surging in states: - specifically, where cases are threatening to make new highs - surge remains higher - it looks like 7 states: ID, ME, NH, VT, WV, MT and Alaska...

  • First Word
October 1

Entering October with a "cluster of worries" but stocks so oversold, we see reasons for upside

So, this could prove to be a temporary reprieve. This chart shows the level of cases (per 1mm residents) and the redder the worse the case impact.  And as you can see: - the states in the North are seeing the highest cases per capita. - the states in the...

  • First Word
September 29

Sell-off yesterday is a "touch" on 100D. Sector leadership during rising rates/ inflation --> Fundstrat Quant research shows Epicenter leads, but Technology holds its own

But actually, it was just a lot of reasons cited for what amounted to a very weak day for markets. _S&P 500 "TOUCHES" 100D -- AGAIN, AN ECHO OF LAST WEEK'S SELL-OFF? -- AKA DOUBLE-BOTTOM?_ Well, if one wants to see any "half-fulls" in the price now, it is the...

  • First Word
September 28

Half of COVID-19 hospitalizations are likely asymptomatic = wut? Oil creeping to new highs is strong signal for Epicenter stocks

Half of all hospitalized US COVID-19 patients likely have mild or no symptoms A few weeks ago, Matt F, one of our long-time clients in Boston (thank you!) forwarded me the story from the Atlantic, with a really provocative and eye-catching headline and byline: - "a new study suggests that...

  • First Word
September 27

Investors got pretty cautious over last 4-6 weeks, and rally of past few days doesn't negate it

Cases in both Sweden and Norway have been in a promising trend, and this is in the face of the Delta variant. Thus, the decisions are coming at a time when COVID-19 is generally retreating there. _ ... USA COVID-19 CASES ARE FALLING HARDER OVER PAST FEW DAYS, -27,521 VS...

FSInsight logo
150 East 52nd St, 3rd Floor, New York, NY 10022

Subscribe to our Free Weekly Report

An institutional-grade report delivered to your inbox every week.

© 2021 FSInsight. All rights reserved. Developed by HANGAR115.

Illustrations by Karl Wimer.