Is tax-loss harvesting for bond funds pressuring yields higher? While patience needed, some positive divergences seen in CCC-BB spreads and Bitcoin/SPX.

The chart in this report is only accessible to members
The chart in this report is only accessible to members

______________________________________________________________

We discuss: how tax-loss harvesting is hitting stocks (expected) but also likely bonds where 13 of 15 largest bond mutual funds down YTD, something essentially never seen.  Divergences of small-caps vs quality spread is likely positive as is the divergence of bitcoin vs $SPY.

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (Duration: 6:31).

The chart in this report is only accessible to members
The chart in this report is only accessible to members

The S&P 500 is down 2% this week, bringing its loss for the month to -3.5%. Besides a few high-profile negative reactions to earnings ($GOOG $META), to me, few macro events explain the acute weakness -- in fact, US 10-yr yields have been relatively more tame than could explain the -2% decline. It is possible that mutual fund tax-loss selling is playing a bigger role in 2023 than we appreciate:

The majority of mutual funds have an October year-end (Barrons) and this means we tend to see tax-loss harvesting as we move into the end of the month. 2022 saw this on display as selling of stocks with negative YTD returns were further under pressure towards the end of October 2022. This year, not only are there equity tax losses to "harvest" but also bond fund losses. 13 of the 15 largest bond mutu...
A FSI Macro, or FSI Pro subscription is required in order to access this content.

We accept crypto via BitPay for yearly subscriptions.

Choose one of our yearly plans to save nearly 15%

    • Macro + Crypto
      FSI Pro
      The Complete Package
      FSI Macro + FSI Crypto
      from
      $
      249
      /mo
      billed anually
      First Month Free!
    • Macro
      FSI Macro
      from
      $
      199
      /mo
      billed anually
      First Month Free!
      What's included?
      Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads.
      Webinars and Media
      Daily video commentary on market conditions & key events.
      We host over 12 LIVE webinars per year with our research team and high-profile special guests. Incredible value and market insights!
      Research
      Weekdays
      The best market research out there -- on a near-daily basis.
      On market events
      These are released periodically after crucial market developments.
      Daily
      Daily commentary on market trends and short term opportunities.
      Weekly
      Weekly update on developments in Washington DC and how they may impact Wall Street.
      Weekly
      Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses.
      Earnings season
      A multi-faceted update of earnings developments.
      Updated bi-weekly
      Highlights timely market themes and sectors with corresponding stocks, cutting through the day-to-day market “noise” for a distinct perspective.
      Stock Lists
      Updated monthly
      Technically derived, intermediate-term picks of attractive risk/reward opportunities from the S&P 500.
      And More!
      Our main goal is to make you a better investor! This series will guide you through key financial concepts and topics in an understandable way.
      We gather your inquiries and answer them in the most scalable way. Hear directly from our research principals!
      Get questions answered directly by our research heads and guest speakers.
      Get access to all the macro research on FS Insight
      First Month Free!
    • Crypto
      FSI Crypto
      from
      $
      99
      /mo
      billed anually
      First Month Free!
      What's included?
      Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads.
      Webinars and Media
      Ongoing webinars exploring crypto opportunities, in depth research, and exclusive research offerings from our team of analysts and leading cryptocurrency firms.
      Weekly
      Digestible videos expanding on important market events and metrics that are shaping cryptocurrency markets.
      Research
      Daily
      Stay on top of the crypto markets with macro commentary, technical analysis, and the most relevant news.
      Intra month
      Hear directly from Tom Lee about important cryptocurrency developments.
      Weekly
      From Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana to other coins, our Head of Technical Strategy highlights important price movement to help give you an edge.
      Weekly
      A must-read summarizing our key thoughts about the crypto market, price action, and developing trends.
      Weekly
      Are you looking for investment opportunities in the crypto space? We explore early-stage crypto opportunities in this note about where the smart money is being invested!
      Intra-month
      Our consulting business delivers incredible deep research reports to highlight the economics and viability of exciting crypto projects.
      And More!
      Our main goal is to make you a better investor! This series will guide you through key financial concepts and topics in an understandable way.
      We gather your inquiries and answer them in the most scalable way. Hear directly from our research principals!
      Get questions answered directly by our research heads and guest speakers.
      Get access to all the crypto research on FS Insight
      First Month Free!

More from the author

Disclosures (show)

Sign in to read the report!

We have detected you are an active member!

Ray: 7584e7-ae0e4f-6a2286-e059cf-305f08

Want to receive Regular Market Updates to your Inbox?

I am your default error :)

Events

Trending tickers in our research