First Word

Headwinds now, but expect tailwinds to prevail in Sept. Upward revisions in profits strongest argument against recession.

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

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We discuss: How headwinds of VIX, yields, apprehension are growing.  But tailwinds are emerging this month as well.  The most notable is EPS revisions inflected positive and along with other factors is the reason we see probabilities of a better finish to Sept.

Please click below to view today’s Macro Minute (Duration: 5:13).

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

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In recent conversations with institutional investors, it is clear to us that investors are incrementally nervous. Foremost is their concern that economic momentum has been improving at a pace that might warrant the Fed to have to increase the path of hikes. This is a "good news is bad news" view and the rise in the ISM services, low jobless claims and even the GDP forecasts (many point to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow).

This has pushed up the odds of a November hike to 39% (backed off from 43% earlier this week) and followed by higher 10-year interest rates and push higher in the VIX. These are all things we have been watching closely, but the VIX is probably at most risk of surging and this could put near-term pressure on stocks. ...

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