No more Fed “higher for longer” as inflation breaking with bank turmoil

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  • There are after-shocks from the collapse of SVB Financial (aka Silicon Valley Bank). The public remains rattled that a bank like SVB could collapse so quickly.
  • And SVB has exposed the operational challenges (deposits vs investments) for banks in a world where central banks have raised rates sharply. And equity and bondholders are wary given FDIC/Fed actions wiped out stakeholders. Worsening this is several rating agencies downgraded regional banks, moving many to below investment grade, which raises these banks cost of funding.
  • Bond volatility has surged to highest level since 2009 (ICE MOVE index) and is amplifying stresses across credit and rates markets.
  • This has driven an abrupt shift in Fed rate path expectations. Only a week ago, the consensus was Fed path was “higher for longer” and Powell on 3/7 delivered a hawkish message underscoring that point. And Fed futures saw ~5 hikes over next 5 meetings.
  • Markets now see ~100bp of cuts post-May and barely 1 hike in total between March/May meetings. The “higher for longer” is dead. That is a huge change in the past week.
This has created challenges for equity markets in the short-term. Our Head o...

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