Post-SIVB failure, 3 likely lingering impacts: job gains slow (start-ups), bank capital costs rise (tighter FC) and biz/consumer confidence hurt (spend) = lowering trajectory of Fed hikes, +25bp or possibly pause.

The dominant news over the coming weeks will likely be the lightning fast failure then resolution of SVB Corp ($SIVB, aka Silicon Valley Bank) and the corresponding second order impacts. The FDIC/Fed took 3 actions: (i) made SIVB depositors whole; (ii) invoked systematic rule and shutdown Signature Bank and (iii) created a new liquidity facility enabling banks to access funds at par (not marked to market) to meet liquidity needs (link).

This action alone is likely to be perceived as constructive by markets. The Fed/regulators protected depositors, reducing risks and forestall further problems with that facility. Some might even say “the Fed blinked.”

But markets will not see the auction of SIVB as the end of this episode. We see 3 lingering impacts that collectively, likely change the path of monetary policy for the remainder of 2023:

First, US jobs growth will slow visibly in coming months. The collapse of SIVB means one of the central financial banks for VC and Silicon Valley has been impaired -- this is true even an asset sale is completed. This is more than "not making payroll". SIVB does business with 44% of start-ups and as the NVCA data shows, VC-backed startups are a primary jobs engine, growing employment 930% faster than rest of economy over the past decad...

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