INTRADAY ALERT: Aftershock part 1... Markets now see Fed cuts by YE as inflation expected to be "dead in its tracks" driven by possible job losses/disinflation by credit-tightening and VC-shock. Still near-term after-shocks.

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There are some important developments taking place in financial markets this morning that warrant flagging. These are consistent with our comments from our First Word this am, but show a more rapid and larger magnitude move in direction:

Fed funds futures have rapidly flipped and expected March/ May hikes is now 0.68 and 0.18 hikes, respectively, down from from 1.33 and 1.08. That means odds of a March hike of no hike is 33% and 66% of 25bp. And roughly 80% chance of no hike in May.YE Fed funds now see 4.0% rate, which compares to a current effective rate of 4.57%, or a cut of ~50bp by YE.The VIX has surged to 29 and the VIX curve is now in backwardation, meaning the 4M VIX is greater than 1M VIX.Collectively, these are signs that market expectations have completely changed. As we noted this morning, we believe the trajectory of Fed rate path was to change due to SIVB failure, but today's pricing shows this is expected to be near instantaneous.In short, it looks like the Fed is largely done raising interest rates. At least that is what the market is pricing for now. I think this is pretty logical actually. Especially if one doesn't look only at lagged CPI and PCE data. The seismic shock from the failure of SIVB an...
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