Powell cited "disinflation" 13 times in Feb FOMC presser (0 in Dec). Fed moved forward goal post = strengthening case >20% gain in 2023.

We publish on a 3-day a week schedule:

Monday
SKIP TUESDAY
Wednesday
SKIP THURSDAY
SKIP FRIDAY --> moved up one day this week

Investors were expecting a hawkish Fed post-Feb FOMC and instead equities rallied >1%

Going into this Fed decision day, investors told us anyone "rational" expects the Fed to come out hawkish, particularly given how much financial conditions eased since October:

Equities were under selling pressure early in the session falling as much as 1% and then sinking further post-Fed decision. But by the end of the day, the S&P 500 closed up >1%Despite a fairly hawkish FOMC opening statement and even initial Fed Chair Powell comments (to Q&A), equity and bond markets garnered dovish undertones from the press conference.Notably, Powell cited the word "disinflation" 13 times in this press conference. This is a major change in language and tone and shows that Fed is now officially recognizing the growing disinflation forces underway. Recall, in December, the Fed cited "inflation higher (vs Sept)" so this is a massive change. And we, at that time, argued that was a Fed "unforced error."In Dec presser, "disinflation" was used ZERO times by Powell.So in 6 weeks, things changed to warrant the exploding use of the word "disinflation" -- disinfl...

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