The October CPI (thu), if soft, could be as much a "game changer" as "hot" Aug CPI derailed equities (S&P 500 4,120 to 3,491)

The October CPI, if soft, means Fed no longer has "back to the wall" on fighting inflation = very consequential

Apple warned that iPhone production has been impacted by COVID-19 restrictions. This will hurt production for $AAPL and it might even hurt the stock short term. But this should hardly cause lasting damage

  • this is not a "demand" problem, it's "supply" due to Foxconn and other China supplier production impacts
  • this delay was also well telegraphed as multiple media stories showed hordes of Foxconn workers fleeing factories to avoid mandatory lockdowns (see below).
  • China is already issuing new guidelines to reduce the burden from COVID-19 lockdowns and this likely means less disruptive measures in the future
The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

In our view, the far more consequential event this week will be October CPI, which is expected to be released on Thursday Nov 10, 2022. The key events this coming week:

US 2022 midterm elections 11/8 --> Republicans taking Senate = deflationary due to direction of Russia-Ukraine war + deflationary due to fiscal restraintOctober CPI on 11/10 --> we think odds favor a downside (positive) read below +0.5% Oct Core MoM = could be as much a "game changer" as "hot" Aug CPI derailed S&P 500 (4,120 to 3,491)U Mich p...

Unlock this article with a FREE 30-Day Trial!

An FSI Pro, or FSI Macro subscription is required in order to access this content.

*Free trial available only on a monthly plan

More from the author

Disclosures (show)

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 2/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You’ve reached your limit of 2 free monthly articles. Please enter your email to unlock 1 more articles.

Already have an account? Sign In

Don't Miss Out
First Month Free