Big data week ahead (JOLTS/FOMC) but bias positive as inflation discussion now more "two-sided" and stocks are not doing what consensus expects.

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Stocks are not doing what consensus expects... consensus might be wrong, not price

The reasons for stocks to continue falling are well known, among them:

  • inflation too high
  • Fed going to keep pressure on markets
  • Europe entering a recession
  • China zero COVID lockdown continues
  • Earnings are slowing
  • Stock charts look like 2008 and many pundits say 2022 will be worse than 2008
  • Russia-Ukraine war will linger for years

Last week, there were plenty of reasons for stocks to sell off hard:

  • market stalwarts like $GOOG $AMZN $META disappointed and sold off double-digits
  • September PCE, Fed's preferred inflation measure, came in at 5.15%, up from 4.89% in August
  • China instituted further lockdowns

Yet, the S&P 500 managed to gain 4% for the week, bringing total gains to 12% in two weeks. The most interesting takeaway, in our view, is that consensus has become even more negative in the face of the market gains.

This tweet by @lloydblankfein, former CEO of $GS Goldman Sachs, summed it well. EVERYONE is negative. But some things could go right.

The video in this report is only accessible to members
And this tweet below is pretty typical of our conversations with institutional investors. Investo...

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