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Sept FOMC... markets expect +75bp and "hawkish" surprise less likely given last 4 weeks. Market's reaction to August CPI one of 10 worst since 1970.

The Fed's September FOMC meets this week and a rate decision will be made on 9/21. Last week, equities suffered the largest weekly loss in 2H2022 so far, falling 4.8% (4th worst week of 2022) on the heels of the August CPI.

  • consensus is looking for +75bp
  • futures markets pricing in roughly 1 in 4 chance of 100bp
  • as Goldman Sachs economists note, there are a few reasons the Fed could lean more hawkish vs prior
The summary of their FOMC preview is below and the rationale for +75bp (slightly...

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