Sept FOMC... markets expect +75bp and "hawkish" surprise less likely given last 4 weeks. Market's reaction to August CPI one of 10 worst since 1970.

The Fed's September FOMC meets this week and a rate decision will be made on 9/21. Last week, equities suffered the largest weekly loss in 2H2022 so far, falling 4.8% (4th worst week of 2022) on the heels of the August CPI.

  • consensus is looking for +75bp
  • futures markets pricing in roughly 1 in 4 chance of 100bp
  • as Goldman Sachs economists note, there are a few reasons the Fed could lean more hawkish vs prior

The summary of their FOMC preview is below and the rationale for +75bp (slightly higher vs post-July FOMC):

  • equities are up (although higher equities are not underlying drivers of recent inflation pickup)
  • labor markets strong enough to handle "aggressive tightening"
  • Fed losing patience and want faster progress
  • possibly re-evaluating "neutral rate"
The video in this report is only accessible to members

A lot of bad news has been priced in the last 4 weeks. Take a look at the weekly S&P 500 chart below:

  • the downturn in equities in the past 4 weeks stem from Powell's speech at Jackson Hole and the August CPI (last week)
  • prior to these events, equities were making far steadier progress in 2H2022
The video in this report is only accessible to members

Markets not likely to be "negatively" shocked by +75bp, but risk is if Fed decides terminal rate higher than 4.5%

The current consensus forecasts for Fed Funds is...

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