First Word

Despite negative September seasonals, roadmap shows positive catalysts in next few weeks + peaking USD + peaking yields = supportive equities

Equities were left a flaming wreck after Jackson Hole (see chart below), with S&P 500 falling ~7% in the ensuing two weeks. But have since managed to stage a bounce in the last few days.

The video in this report is only accessible to members

Fortunately, the technical damage could be limited, if stocks manage to sustain a bounce from here. As shown below, using "simple trendlines," we can see that both:

  • S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite both respected the trendline in place
  • since June 2022
  • in our view, June 17, 2022 was the date of fundamental capitulation
  • as that was the date inflationary pressures reached "maximum upside acceleration" on the heels of a strong May CPI, plus negative U Mich consumer inflation survey, plus Fed decided to move to +75bp hike
  • and this recent pullback touched that corresponding trendline
The video in this report is only accessible to members

In fact, taking a further step back, stocks have seemed to find footing along the trendline connecting the March 2020 lows and June 2022 lows. Thus, even as challenging as the last few weeks have felt, one could suggest the uptrend/bull market remains solidly intact.

The video in this report is only accessible to members

Even with bad September seasonals, a roadmap exists for positive catalysts into month-end

The August CPI released on 9/13 is particularly important for markets. And it looks like the inflation-swaps a...

Unlock this article with a FREE 30-Day Trial!

An FSI Pro, or FSI Macro subscription is required in order to access this content.

*Free trial available only on a monthly plan

More from the author

Disclosures (show)

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 2/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You’ve reached your limit of 2 free monthly articles. Please enter your email to unlock 1 more articles.

Already have an account? Sign In

Want to receive Regular Market Updates to your Inbox?

I am your default error :)