Nasdaq down 7 days in a row, actually a constructive signal. Since 1970, stocks higher 74% of time 1M, 3M, 6M later.

The equity market does not believe the bond market...

Equities have sold off seemingly continuously since Jackson Hole (8/26), as the strong message from the Fed and uncertainty around Russia, China and economy have pushed equities to become "no bid" -- in fact, as many noted, the Nasdaq is down 7 consecutive days. Since 1970, this is pretty uncommon, as highlighted later in this commentary.

In our view, there are 3 questions that primarily impact markets today (Russia/Europe, etc impact these 3):

  • When will inflation be back to Fed target of 2%?
  • When will the Fed finish hiking? (aka pivot)
  • Is there a recession in 2023?

Below, we highlight the consensus answer from 3 major market cohorts: Fed, bond market and a typical equity investor.

  • recall, James Carville famously quipped he wished to be reborn as the bond market
  • note the varied perspective below but take particular note of the bond market
  • bond market sees inflation approaching 2% by June 2023
  • bond market sees Fed ending hikes by March 2023
  • bond market does not see a recession (credit spreads, OIS swaps, etc)
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If equity markets believed bond market, stocks would be bottoming now, ala August 1982

If equity markets believed th...

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