While 10-yr yields and Fed Funds barely budge post-Jackson Hole, equities decline sharply = countertrade. U Mich survey shows Republicans primarily see "sticky" inflation.

The tape feels vulnerable. But as Helene Meisler, TA, likes to say, "nothing like price to change sentiment"

  • and post-Jackson Hole, investors have become very bearish
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Equities sold off sharply post-Powell's speech at Jackson Hole (JH) on Friday (8/26). The Jackson Hole speech is not the only macro development, as Friday also saw hawkish rhetoric from the ECB and negative development on the Russia-Ukraine war (as noted by Vital Knowledge). But investors took Friday to become even more negative on the outlook for both the US/global economy and for equities.

But we view this as a far over-reaction. Why? Here are a few key points:

the Fed spoke of "pain to households and businesses" and this is what became the focus for investors but this reflects the Fed's desire to quash inflation without risk of "flare up"post-JH, implied YE 2022 Fed funds rose only 4bp vs +90bp post-June FOMCpost-JH, US 10-yr rose 5bp compared to +50bp post-June FOMCU Mich August Final Consumer Surveys released and show inflation expectations still fallingU Mich bottom 25th percentile 1-year inflation expectations at +0.9% are below the 20-year average of +1.2%Democratic respondent 1-year inflation fell to 3.8% from 4.3% two months ago. Republican respondent 1-year infla...

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