After July FOMC, entire yield curve will be at or above "neutral rate" = optionality = 2H rally view intact

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A big data week is ahead, with 3 major data incoming:

  • 7/27 is July FOMC --> +75bp is base case and few surprises expected
  • 7/28 2Q GDP --> investors expecting negative print given GDPNOW by Atlanta Fed
  • 7/29 Core June PCE --> main event arguably given inflation is focus. +0.9% consensus

Extra credit and still important:

7/25 Case Shiller May home pric...

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