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Cooling of inflation ("i") aka disinflation is Fed primary focus and in 1H2022, the sole focus of markets. Obviously, there remains the question of how quickly inflation can cool, and this lack of visibility unsettles markets. But as we discuss below, energy prices have dropped sharply in the past few weeks with Natural gas down -45% and oil -14% and we have heard that food suppliers are sitting on mounting food inventories. Thus, headline drivers of inflation (food + energy) could be cooling sharply.

But the converse of this "i" positives is the mounting concerns about S&P 500 EPS guidance in 2H. Our Head of global portfolio strategy, Brian Rauscher, has written extensively on this. Keep in mind:

EPS risk as the "bullwhip" effect is going to cause wild swings in EPSnominal GDP, however, will continue to be strong given headline inflationmarkets, in our view, can more easily see through "e" than they can see through "i"thus, in 2H2022,...

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