COVID-19 UPDATE: Wave 3 conclusively rolling over as daily cases 147,328, +5,761 vs 7D ago. Lowest since mid-Oct. Look for seasonal strength in equities now.

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.

HOLIDAY WEEK: Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, we are only publishing our COVID-19 BLAST updates on the following days:
– Monday am
– Tuesday am
– Wed am

No more reports
– Thursday and Friday –> Thanksgiving



STRATEGY: Shortened trading week, but positive seasonalities kicking in
Conclusive.  Wave 3 rolling over…for now?  Will holiday gatherings give COVID-19 new “teeth”
Last week, we posited that it looked like Wave 3 was rolling over (see our comments from 11/17), based upon looking at the 7D delta in new daily cases.  As of Sunday, this trend seems firmly in place:

– 7D delta in daily cases is now +5,761, the lowest since early November
– WOW!!!!

But– US reported 147,328 cases
– Cases, however, are still rising (7D delta positive) and we could see 200,000 cases this week

Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project


Holidays = more family time = R0 should go up…
Is Wave 3 over? Possibly.  And if it was, this is far faster than our baseline.  We have been using the IHME timeline, and they see infections peaking around Feb 2021.  So this is fully 12 weeks earlier.

But given we are in the holiday season, involving family gatherings and travel, the risk is increased for infection and the R0 to rise.  COVID-19 remains mysterious and difficult to contain and forecast.  Stay vigilant!


Market entering seasonally strong period…
To me, Thanksgiving is the start of the 6 most joyful weeks in a year –> Thanksgiving to Christmas to New Year’s Day.  So today is the start of the “holiday period.”   This also happens to be the start of a seasonally strong period for equity markets.

– Since 1995, equity markets rallied 3.3% Monday pre-Thanksgiving to YE (excluding ‘bearish’ years, 2000-2002, 2007, 2014, 2018)
– This is an 89% win-ratio

So, markets have seasonal tailwinds in place.  

Source: Fundstrat



There is one movie I watch every Thanksgiving week.  It is “Planes, Trains and Automobiles” with John Candy and Steve Martin.  It is always on a network, or streamed, so it is difficult to miss.  And if you have not watched this, please give it a shot.  This movie has really grown on me over the years, and I still laugh at the same parts.  

Source: Paramount Pictures

ADDENDUM: We are attaching the stock lists for our 3 portfolios:
We get several requests to give the updated list for our stock portfolios.  We are including the links here:

– Granny Shots  –>       core stocks, based on 6 thematic/tactical portfolios
– Trifecta epicenter  –> based on the convergence of Quant (tireless Ken), Rauscher (Global strategy), Sluymer (Technicals)
– Biden vs Trump  –>   based on correlation to either candidate odds

Granny Shots:
Full stock list here –> Click here

Trifecta Epicenter:
Full stock list here –> Click here

Biden White House vs. Trump White House:
Full stock list here –> Click here

ADDENDUM II : Did you miss our Webinar last week? We had the big guns, including David Zion, of Zion’s Research
We had a great line up and discussed a lot of things between now and year-end.  Here are the replay links:

– Replay –> Click here







POINT 1: Yup. Cases rolling over.  Daily cases 147,328, +5,761 vs 7D ago — lowest in 40 days
The latest COVID-19 daily cases came in at 147,328, up +5,761 vs 7D ago. Wave 3 is still surging.

– Wave 3 looks like it is rolling over
– We wondered this last week (see 11/17 commentary)
– cases starting to decelerate on a “rate of change” basis in some places
– CA cases are still surging, however

Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project  and Fundstrat


7D delta at 5,761 is the lowest in nearly 40 days…
Again, the daily change vs 7D ago, in our view, is the leading indicator as it is what influences the 7D moving average.
– Daily cases are rising vs 7D ago,
– It had been rising at >40,000 7D delta
– the pace slowed to 5,761 the lowest since mid-October

Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat  

Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat  

Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat




POINT 2: California cases explode, as COVID-19 engulfs CA counties spared in Wave 2
Cases in California surged to new highs in the past few days, as shown below.  This is the first F-CAT state to see “new highs” in cases.

Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project



Wave 3 is sweeping across counties in CA there were spared in Wave 2…
In Wave 2, CA primarily saw cases surging in the southern part of the state (border counties).  But as the chart below shows, there are widespread surges in cases across the state.  And the counties with the highest cases are circled:

– so CA surge is essentially seeing COVID-19 move across the states
– Wave 3 in CA, is like Wave 3 across USA

Source: California Open Data and Fundstrat


Below is a list of the top 15 CA counties with the highest cases per 1mm, both in Wave 2 and in Wave 3.  As you can see, the list has some overlap, but it is also many new counties.

Source: California Open Data and Fundstrat




POINT 3: Thanksgiving warnings from Thanksgiving in 1918
Over the weekend, one of the tweets that caught my eye was this tweet by Dana Mattioli, a writer for the WSJ.  She was posting excerpts from a USA Today article which attached headlines from Thanksgiving 1918.  As we all know, Thanksgiving 1918 was in the midst of the Wave 2 of the Spanish flu. 

Source: twitter.com


And like Americans now, Americans in 1918 weighed the tradeoffs of seeing family over Thanksgiving compared to maintaining the needed protocols to mitigate the spread of Spanish flu, in particular, masks.  In fact, the USA Today article below, has many instances of mask usage and photos of mask users.  So the article is definitely worth a read — and given it is USA Today, it is relatively short form content.

– like 2020, a vaccine had been developed by Thanksgiving 1918, so policymakers were urging Americans to keep safe until enough could be distributed

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/nation/2020/11/21/covid-and-thanksgiving-how-we-celebrated-during-1918-flu-pandemic/6264231002/


Just like today, policymakers had tough trade-offs to make, including religious freedom and economic costs.  So it seemed that restrictive measures were in place, but less so for churches and for saloons.  Take a look at some of the headlines below.

– I particularly liked ‘open-face sneezers’ to be arrested
– that is some serious shaming (apologies for making light of that)

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/nation/2020/11/21/covid-and-thanksgiving-how-we-celebrated-during-1918-flu-pandemic/6264231002/


We hope everyone is safe over the Thanksgiving holiday.  I agree it is important to see family and friends.  And for those wondering about the timeline for the Spanish flu, this was also included in the article. The timeline lines up to 2020, pretty well.  And if so, Summer 2021 is the potential end date.


– Outbreak           March    1918    Feb 2020
– Wave 2              Sept       1918    July 2020
– Wave 3              Jan         1919    Nov 2020
– Pandemic ends Summer 1919    ???  <– Summer 2021?


So Summer 2021 lines up well for the end of this pandemic? Maybe.

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/nation/2020/11/21/covid-and-thanksgiving-how-we-celebrated-during-1918-flu-pandemic/6264231002/