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COVID-19 UPDATE: If a "second wave" falls in the forest, does anyone hear it? WHO recommends against "shutting down economy" in an outbreak

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.

STRATEGY: COVID-19 cases getting worse, but severity surprisingly muted   
Washington remains in a stalemate, with fiscal stimulus still in limbo.  And while I would view getting fiscal stimulus as positive, I am not so sure it matters meaningfully to markets if a fiscal deal happens after the election day vs within the next 25 days.

- why?
- if Biden wins and we get a blue wave, Dems will do a huge fiscal stimulus
- if Trump wins and keeps Senate, Trump will see this as a mandate and go huge on fiscal stimulus

Get the picture? A BIG deal is likely coming after the election day.  In fact, the only risk to this would be a surprise Republicans keep Senate and win the House.  Then we get fiscal restraint.

If the polls are correct, whoever wins the White House should win the Senate, so the above scenarios should hold.  FiveThirtyEight sees Dems gaining the Senate.

Source: FiveThirtyEightBut the other key factor in markets is the path of COVID-19.  As we discuss below, COVID-19 daily cases are worsening, and potentially rapidly. Daily cases vs 7D ago are rising at a higher pace.  If states do not control this spread, we could be looking at a new all-time high in daily ca...

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