COVID-19 UPDATE: COVID-19 is in retreat in 73% of the US. NYC returning to work + indoor dining = big deal. 45 Epicenter + Trifecta stocks
Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.
This week has been an exceptionally positive week in COVID-19 daily case data. For each of the 4 weekdays, M-Thu, daily cases have been down vs 7D ago (seasonality is big) and given some expected backlog for the long weekend, we did not see any "payback." Daily cases came in at 36,981 which is down -7,381 vs 7D ago.
- at this pace, daily cases will likely fall below 20,000 next week --> yup
- moreover, this trend suggests daily cases in a serious retreat
- we discuss below how daily cases are falling sustainably in 73% of the US and only 27% of the US is seeing stubborn case trends (see below).
The obvious question is whether anyone really believes this? We see media headlines continuing to point to rising case figures (which will happen in 5 of 7 weekdays, due to seasonality) and that COVID-19 remains unchecked. But the underlying is pointing to a rapid retreat in cases. This despite back to school and other headwinds.
STRATEGY: Updating optimal "epicenter" stock picks --> 45 names
Baby Boomer retail investors, measured by AAII Sentiment Survey, have been bearish since March...
As many of our clients are aware, we view the AAII survey, or American Association of Individual Investors, as one of the standard bearers of retail sentiment. The survey has been conducted since at least 1987 and today represents a very good snapshot of retail investor sentiment. The members are now much older, typically representing Baby Boomers, but as we all know, Baby Boomers also happen to control 76% of the $100 trillion of US household net worth.
- thus, Baby Boomer retail sentiment is arguably the best measure of true retail sentiment, as measured by wallet
- AAII survey shows Baby Boomers have been persistently bearish since the start of the Feb/March crash
- But they never turned bullish
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