COVID-19 UPDATE: COVID-19 seeing triple confirmation -- cases, hospitalizations, deaths consistently down. What is right P/E for an unkillable company?

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From a COVID-19 perspective, this week and next week are critical, as this plateauing of cases needs to turn into a downright retreat, before anyone can breathe a sigh of relief.  The good news is the case data this week has consistently shown that COVID-19 seems to be in retreat.  The daily cases today at 52,300, while up vs 1D ago (expected seasonality), is down 11,327 vs 7D ago.  So, the R0 is essentially falling below zero. 

In fact, as this expanded series below shows, this decline (7D delta) is even faster than the retreat seen in April/May after this initial surge.  Thus, it seems like COVID-19 cases are improving at a faster pace.

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Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project

And the epicenter of this June/July surge, the 4 states, FL, CA, AZ, TX, or F-CAT, is seeing daily cases consistently slow.  This is highlighted below and in our commentary, we also point out that even hospitalizations are dropping rapidly in these states.  If the disease were worsening, we would expect hospital utilization to be rising, not falling.

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Source: COVID-19 Tracking ProjectBut this slowdown is no fluke.  About a month ago, every state took corrective action -- closing bars, requiring mas...

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