COVID-19 UPDATE: On the margin, daily case "rate of increase" slowing = good. Epicenter 82% (200 points) upside, and 26% market cap

STRATEGY: Tide seems to be turning in favor of "half-full" We are only mid-week but it does seem like the cadence of incoming data has turned favorable, after 4 weeks of worsening COVID-19 cases and re-opening risks:- Daily US cases are rising at a slower pace- F-CAT daily cases are plateauing and not much left of the US to "burn down"- Good news on the vaccine front with Moderna and others- Stocks are bumping up against cycle highsThis week is a reminder of the importance of binary outcomes and how this "flips" what works...As we noted yesterday, the Moderna news is a reminder of how "binary" catalysts exist.  We have cataloged a few of the potential catalysts, and its impact on investor positioning. Vaccine developed- Epicenter/Cyclicals --> BOOMCure/ antibody treatment- Epicenter/Cyclicals --> BOOM F-CAT cases peak- Epicenter/Cyclicals --> BOOM Second wave NY tristate- Stay at home --> BOOM  White House gets coronavirus- Stay at home --> BOOM   - Defensives --> BOOM   Deaths begin to rise- Stay at home --> BOOM  Epicenter stocks were suffering since June 9, 2020 suggests equity markets were losing faith in disease pathAs the chart below shows, the epicenter stocks (Discretiona...

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