Thoughts ahead of 4th of July weekend... VIX cares about "deaths" > "cases" and watch 4 "nucleus" cities this weekend
July 4th long weekend is ahead of us. And most Americans will be enjoying time-off, outdoor cooking and family time, and generally enjoying the long weekend. But in the back of my mind, I will be minding developments for COVID-19, because the US is facing a delicate balance between mitigating this horrendous pandemic versus safely keeping this economy open.
So here are some of what we believe will be the key thing we are watching;
- US daily cases to continue to surge, perhaps to >60,000 as CA is in "early prevalence curve"
- US deaths hopefully continue this curious divergence (downtrend) while cases explode
- Watching the 4 "nucleus" cities of Houston, Phoenix, Miami and Los Angeles. These are the most important cities in each of the 4 F-CAT "new epicenter" states (FL, CA, AZ, TX)
- Scanning for evidence of improved "compliance" with mitigation measures like masks, social distance, etc.
COVID-19 is spreading at an uncontained rate currently. There has been "course correcting" by states (good) and states are moving ever closer to the "infection break point" so, at some point, this surge will turn into a "turning the corner"
Continuing this divergence is important -- that cases and deaths are not linked, a curious divergence since late May
Since late May, daily cases have exploded (see red scatter) but the daily deaths have trended down. This is an important divergence. Why is this happening? We are not sure, but our guess:
- better hospital/healthcare preparedness
- healthier and less naturally vulnerable infected
- younger patients
- disease is weakening?
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