COVID-19 UPDATE: USA cases see new high, not 2nd wave, but an F-CAT wave (FL, CA, AZ, TX). Stocks are "consolidating" and we do not view this as a top.

COVID-19 confirmed cases surged again on Wednesday, rising +5,083 to a new high of 38,296.  I think it is important to appreciate this surge is not really a second wave, but really a surge in cases from states which have seen a surge in cases since early June.  One way to see is the chart below, creating 3 composites for the US daily cases:

- NY/NJ/CT which was the original epicenter
- F-CAT (Florida, CA, AZ and TX) which as we wrote about, did see imported cases which are now community transmission
- Rest of 43 states.

Looked at this way, the NY tristate has crushed downwards case growth.  But F-CAT is seeing a parabolic rise.  And as we have commented in the past few weeks, we believe the "accelerant" is the ongoing nationwide protests, more so than the re-opening of the states.

The video in this report is only accessible to members
Source: COVID-19 Tracking ProjectBut this is not the only explanation.  I think the South is getting hit with a quadfecta: - “indoor season” as it gets so hot, people go inside- Higher Latino/Black/minority share (vitamin D)- Spillover from Latin America (had to quantify)- BLM movement is gasoline to spreadAnd this part of the country was forced to "lockdown" for two months in March-April while experiencing little of the horror seen in NY/NJ...

Unlock this article with a FREE 30-Day Trial!

An FSI Pro, or FSI Macro subscription is required in order to access this content.

*Free trial available only on a monthly plan

More from the author

Disclosures (show)

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 2/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You’ve reached your limit of 2 free monthly articles. Please enter your email to unlock 1 more articles.

Already have an account? Sign In

Don't Miss Out
First Month Free