COVID-19 UPDATE: VIX spike = tepid bull conviction = short pullback. Reiterating variant view -- cases not spiking organically except in AR, UT and imported TX, CA and AZ.

It is a painful way to end this week.  Equity markets fell sharply today, down ~6%, and retracing all gains since Memorial Day.  The selling was intense and widespread, with few stocks spared and was the scariest day in markets since the 3/23/2020 lows.  A big down day like this was overdue, given the extended and relentless gains.  Because this was a more intense day of selling, compared to days we have seen in the past few weeks, the natural question is whether this is the start of a broader sell-off.

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Fear certainly rose today, as the spot VIX surged to 40 and posted a 66% gain in just 3 trading days (super rare).  But as the chart below shows, such spikes in the VIX often mark the end of a sell-off, not the start. Sure, there are exceptions and the only real one in the past decade is mid-2015, where the spike was an interim low, but stocks were on their way to lower lows by August 2015.  The dynamic is different today for many reasons.  

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If this is the start of a broader sell-off, the one thing to be mindful of is who needs to de-lever?  There are still tons of cash on the sidelines.  CFTC positioning data shows institutions are largely risk-off.  Sentiment is still weak.  The only constituents really b...

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