COVID-19 UPDATE: Americans broke their "shelter at home diets" and next 2 weeks will tell us a lot. Most at stake are "social distance victim stocks" = barometer next 2 weeks
COVID-19 remains a global crisis and we realize that many people need to keep up with COVID-19 developments, particularly since we are moving into the more critical stage ("restart economy"), so feel free to share our commentary to anyone who has interest.
There are sources if the US sees "renewed" outbreak in the number and intensity of COVID-19 cases. We touched upon these yesterday, the first is the 75 cities seeing widespread protests stemming from the senseless death of George Floyd; and the second, is imported cases along the US-Mexico border (as discussed below, in the 23 counties bordering US-Mexico, daily cases +162% in the past month). From a healthcare perspective, the mass gatherings, laying aside social distance protocol, PPE (for most part) and sanitization, is equivalent to a dieter being 27 days into a 30 day "no carb" diet and suddenly breaking fast.
But I don't know what will happen in two weeks. And this is why the path of COVID-19 in the US is dependent on the outcome from these protests. No doubt, Americans gathering in density is similar to the Champion League events in Northern Italy that resulted in that country's massive outbreak. We now have transmission risk in high gear in the US in 75 cities. This is a fact. And the outcome could be 1 of several:
- USA cases explode in the next two weeks;
- USA cases remain flat/steady next two weeks, more of the same trend as today;
- USA cases collapse in the next two weeks;
If this last one is what we see, this by far, the biggest development for COVID-19 anywhere in the World. This suggests the combination of using PPE, and/or better weather (>vitamin D) and/or mutations are making COVID-19 less of a health risk. And this means no second wave (for now), and no need for future shutdowns. Very likely, Americans will resist a future effort to shelter-at-home, with Americans breaking their "shelter at home diets," it is doubtful that genie can be put back in the bottle.
The biggest winners if there is no "second wave" in two weeks:
- theme parks
- cruise lines
- outdoor events
- sports and stadiums
- bars and nightclubs
Put another way, the equities of these groups are worth watching. If they continue rallying, they are telling us the protests are not triggering a second wave. So far, these groups have been strong over the past week.
- we will see how they do in the next 2 weeks.
- if strongly, then likely no second wave
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