Index level alert - SPX challenging a key trend support level at its 15-dma
One day’s trading is often just noise, and the Nasdaq is again green on the day BUT yesterday’s late day sell-off on higher downside volume, had the hallmarks of a short-term reversal day tactical investors/should pay attention to particularly heading into today’s close.
The levels are likely to be increasingly important heading into option expiration this week and next (5/15 for equities and 5/20 for index options) with the 15-dma (S&P 2870, NDX 8919) important short-term proxies for the trend of the recent equity market rebound.
Noteworthy technical developments
- The S&P 500 (SPX) reversed from important short-term trading resistance at the most recent high on 4/29 at 2954 while the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) reversed from the 2/24 gap between 9195-9593, that technically focused traders are fixated on.
- S&P support begins at the 05/04 lows at 2797 and 50-dma at 2725 followed by a heavier band of support near the 200-week (~1000-day) sma 2660-2640. See chart 1
- Nasdaq 100 (NDX) support, below the 15-dma at 8919 begins at its 50-dma (8266) and 200-dma (8311). See chart 2
- Our short-term momentum indicators (chart 1, top panel) peaked in mid-April, flip-flopping into May and actually began to turn up at the beginning of this week. It’s not a text book setup but a move below the zero axis would confirm a corrective window developing. Also, other momentum indicators many technical traders follow, such as MACD, Stochastics and RSI, are also at or near stall/reversal points so expect to hear more technically focused headlines highlighting those developments in the coming days/week.
- Key levels for the VIX (32) begin at the declining 15-dma at 33.75 followed by the 05/04 highs at 40 and the 50-dma at 47. See chart 3
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