COVID-19 UPDATE: COVID-19 deaths ex-nursing homes and ex-Tri State area --> ~19,000, or 74% lower.
COVID-19 remains a global crisis and we realize that many people need to keep up with COVID-19 developments, particularly since we are moving into the more critical stage ("restart economy"), so feel free to share our commentary to anyone who has interest.
For anyone who was driving around the US this weekend, one would have noticed a pretty sizable increase in cars on the road. For those in the Northeast US and NY tristate area, local governments are opening some city parks and coupled with improving weather, is a factor for the increased traffic. But of course, this is going to make a lot of people uneasy and every person has a different degree of comfort with social distance. COVID-19 is still a serious issue for many cities (the chronic states of NY, NJ, CT, MA, IL, etc), so I understand how this causes concern. And as there is greater movement, and more states relaxing restrictions, the two logical things to monitor is:
- individual compliance with mitigation measures of PPE, hand washing, social distance
- cases reported data since symptoms appear within 1-5 days
But the healthcare tragedy of COVID-19 is concentrated in two epicenters: first, NY/tri-state area (~38% cases and 45% deaths) and nursing homes (~17% cases and 42% deaths) (we expanded the analysis to 19 states, or 66% US). Thus, ex- NY tri-state and ex-nursing homes:
- total US COVID-19 deaths 19,483 vs 73,569 total. In other words, dramatically lower.
Researches at Mt Sinai posted a study that suggests those who had COVID-19 have a degree of immunity (NY Times article, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/health/coronavirus-antibody-prevalence.html)
Mt Sinai researchers published a study on MedRxiv last week (multiple authors) and the NY Times published an article on May 7. The study looked at convalescent plasma and tested for antibodies. The study has not been peer-reviewed, but their conclusion is that they believe patients who were previously COVID19 positive have antibodies "potentially providing immunity to reinfection."
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