COVID-19 UPDATE: White House raising deaths >100k. Data from 10 states (~50% US), nursing homes 0.4% pops, but 18% cases (44X) and 42% deaths (102X)

The White House has steadily raised the forecasts for COVID-19 deaths and this week, President Trump warned >100,000 deaths are likely compared to what looked like 65,000 a few weeks ago.  Part of this can be attributed to states opening up their economies and thus, naturally making a trade-off between economic hardship and pandemic hardship.  And part of it is better tracking by states.  The CDC released some data comparing reported US deaths in 2020 (2/1-4/25/2020) vs what was expected and it shows overall US deaths are 3% below expected--the lockdown has led to "avoided" deaths in car accidents, overdoses, murders, etc.This pandemic is a global tragedy.  And when we look at the mortality, the risks are much greater for older Americans.But nursing homes have been a much greater source of COVID-19 cases and deaths.  Our data scientist, tireless Ken, compiled nursing home statistics for 10 state (~50% of US population) and the statistics are heartbreaking (and a full discussion is Point #3 below):In these 10 states:- nursing home residents total 671k or 0.4% of the population- nursing home residents account for 18% of cases or 44X the pop ratio- nursing home residents account for 42% of deaths or 102X the pop ratioThese are absolutely shocking to me -...

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