COVID-19 UPDATE: US cases rise slightly due to NY, NJ, CT and IL (not newly opened states) and looks like "open" states TX and GA residents are leaving homes.
COVID-19 remains a global crisis and we realize that many people need to keep up with COVID-19 developments, particularly since we are moving into the more critical stage ("restart economy"), so feel free to share our commentary to anyone who has interest.
While there is no playbook for navigating a pandemic, or at least we do not have a playbook (as we stated several times over past few months), as states begin to ease restrictions, it will be important to track two dynamics: first, what activities states are "easing" and second, the willingness of residents to re-engage. Our data science team, led by tireless Ken, categorized state "easing" into 6 categories (elective surgeries, etc) and also compiled some high-frequency analytics to track "re-engagement" of some of these. Like we said, there is no playbook, so if you have suggestions or ideas, we welcome them.
So far 26 states are in some state of "open" representing 58% of US GDP. But state governments have limited what activities are open or set dates for easing into the future. And it seems like states have prioritized "business" and "healthcare" over "retail" -- this is not surprising since the two formers are larger contributors to the tax base (asset owners), even as they are smaller shares of employment.
- 19 states have allowed elective surgeries (34% GDP) -- this might be more as some states like NY are doing phases of easing of this.
- 18 allowed manufacturing (27% GDP) to resume/ or workers who cannot "telecommute" back to the office
- 14 allowed (24%) "dine-in" of some form (outdoor seating, or indoor, like Georgia)
More of this is discussed below. And some of the early results show residents are re-engaging. There is a pronounced drop in "stay at home" in Georgia (open since 4/24/2020) and Texas (open since 5/1) but Texas shows residents started leaving home since 4/1. But more interesting, we can pronounced trends back to work sites (per Google Analytics) in these states. We will expand our framework and analysis over time. But we are just introducing it today.
The USA COVID-19 case data today showed +2,323 more cases to 27,350 from 25,027--but don't worry. It is not new infections in open states. It is the chronic 4 -- NY, NJ, CT and IL account for 1,939 of the 2,323 rise.
As for economic data, the April employment report is released Friday 5/8/2020 and it will be the worst employment report in the history of modern civilization and for any country. Consensus is looking for 22 million jobs lost in April, on top of the 700k in March and this is largely foretold by the 30mm-plus jobless claims. This only underscores how devastating this pandemic has been -- both on lives lost and carnage to the economy.
POINT #1: US COVID-19 cases rise 27,350 vs 25,027 (+2,323) due to "chronic 4" NY, CT, NJ and IL not "open states" like TX, GA...Total US COVID-19 cases rose today by +2,323 to 27,350 from 25,027. This is a pretty sizable jump but when looking at the composition of states adding to the rise, it is really from 4 states, of which 3 of the 4 have been "chronic" case risers.
Choose one of our yearly plans to save nearly 15%
- Macro + Crypto
- Macro + Crypto