COVID-19 UPDATE: NYC serological study suggest 13X > prevalence = 1.7mm asymptomatic NYC-ers (of 8.4mm residents). Changes calculus: Treatment > Testing > Vaccine

COVID-19 remains a global crisis and we realize that many people need to keep up with COVID-19 developments, particularly since we are moving into the more critical stage ("restart economy"), so feel free to share our commentary to anyone who has interest. Several states today and yesterday reported somewhat meaningful increases in COVID-19 cases, including NY, NJ, and MA.  But none of the governors, during their press briefings, seemed particularly concerned about this rise.  In total, US daily cases jumped to 32,179 (+3,269, a pretty sizable jump) with 75% of that attributable to NY, NJ, MA.  NY Gov Cuomo spent much of the time discussing the results of NY state serological study which found the prevalence of COVID-19 (based on antibodies) to be ~10X higher than previously thought and NYC with an estimated 21% of residents have been previously exposed (13X).  Cases are rising but state leaders are not sounding incrementally alarmed and perhaps this is a sign that hospitalizations, intubations, and death are their new benchmarks.But what we think is the most meaningful development today is that NY state study is now the 5th serological study that shows vastly higher COVID-19 prevalence.  Why does this matter?  We think it casts the pandemic in a very different light, wi...

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