COVID-19 UPDATE.  NY state cases keep dropping (-56% from the peak 16 days ago).  7 states on track to open in 2 weeks (20% of US GDP).

COVID-19 remains a global crisis and we realize that many people need to keep up with COVID-19 developments, particularly since we are moving into the more critical stage ("restart economy"), so feel free to share our commentary to anyone who has interest.


If we ever needed a reminder for the extent of the abrupt decline in global economic activity, it is the fact that WTI oil futures saw a negative price today.  Think about that.  Holders of WTI contracts were pricing in a negative value, because nobody wants to take physical delivery.  Of course, oil is not negatively priced in totality as Brent crude is still ~$25/barrel and WTI June oil is $20-ish. 

But oil is a residual issue of the broader global "stay at home" and this situation will not change until Western nations and US states begin opening up. And they cannot open up until each jurisdiction feels they have a handle on the healthcare crisis (wave 1) and outlined plans to safely re-start.  

In this note, we highlight the 7 US states announcing plans to open the economy in the next 2 weeks, representing 20% of US GDP.  And we look at the 3 nations in Europe announcing plans to re-open, including the largest nation, Germany.


POINT #1: NY state case count plunging, latest is 4,726 down -56% from 4/4/2020 peak of 10,841
NY state remains the front end of the COVID-19 crisis in the US, and because ~33% of all cases originate from NY state, seeing improvements in this state is really the leading indicator for the rest of the country.  The trend of falling net new cases continues. The daily reported new cases was 4,726, down 56% from the 4/4/2020 peak of 10,841.

- NY state is clearly on the other side of the apex.  Governor Cuomo reiterated the "stay at home" orders remain in effect until mid-May. 

- But at this rate, NY state could easily meet the gating criteria before the end of the month for a Phase I opening (per White House). 

As discussed in the next section, 6 states have already announced plans to phased openings of their economy.

An FSI Macro, or FSI Pro subscription is required in order to access this content.
If you are already a member at FS Insight, please If you don’t have a subscription to FS Insight yet, you can sign up below.

We accept crypto via BitPay for yearly subscriptions.

Choose one of our yearly plans to save nearly 15%

    • Macro + Crypto
      FSI Pro
      The Complete Package
      FSI Macro + FSI Crypto
      from
      $
      249
      /mo
      billed anually
      First Month Free!
    • Macro
      FSI Macro
      from
      $
      199
      /mo
      billed anually
      First Month Free!
      What's included?
      Webinars and Media
      Webinars
      We host over 12 LIVE webinars per year with our research team and high-profile special guests. Incredible value and market insights!
      Weekly
      Coming Soon
      Fireside Chats
      Weekly interviews with our research heads about market opportunities and important updates.
      Research
      Weekdays
      Tom Lee's First Word
      The best market research out there -- on a near-daily basis.
      On market events
      Tom Lee's Intraday Word
      These are released periodically after crucial market developments.
      Daily
      Daily Technical Strategy
      Daily commentary on market trends and short term opportunities.
      Weekly
      Wall Street Whispers
      Exclusive insights based on discussions with institutional clients.
      Weekly
      Quantitative Strategy
      Quantitative market research utilizing industry-leading analytical methods.
      Weekly
      US Policy
      Weekly update on developments in Washington DC and how they may impact Wall Street.
      Weekly
      Weekly Roadmap
      Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses.
      Earnings season
      Earnings Daily
      A multi-faceted update of earnings developments.
      Updated bi-weekly
      Signal From Noise
      Highlights timely market themes and sectors with corresponding stocks, cutting through the day-to-day market “noise” for a distinct perspective.
      Stock Lists
      Updated quarterly
      Granny Shots
      Thematic investment stock picks that aim to outperform the S&P 500.
      Updated monthly
      Brian’s Dunks
      Single stock pics that are poised to outperform the index by leveraging sector outperformance and earning revisions strategies.
      Updated monthly
      FSI Sector Allocation
      A sector allocation strategy that is designed to outperform the S&P 500 while taking minimal risk.
      Updated monthly
      Factor Strategy
      List of ETFs based on quantitative models that should outperform the S&P 500 on a monthly basis.
      And More!
      FSI Academy
      Our main goal is to make you a better investor! This series will guide you through key financial concepts and topics in an understandable way.
      Community Questions
      We gather your inquiries and answer them in the most scalable way. Hear directly from our research principals!
      Community Interviews
      Get questions answered directly by our research heads and guest speakers.
      Get access to all the macro research on FS Insight
      First Month Free!
    • Crypto
      FSI Crypto
      from
      $
      99
      /mo
      billed anually
      First Month Free!
      What's included?
      Webinars and Media
      Webinars
      Ongoing webinars exploring crypto opportunities, in depth research, and exclusive research offerings from our team of analysts and leading cryptocurrency firms.
      Weekly
      Crypto Chats
      Digestible videos expanding on important market events and metrics that are shaping cryptocurrency markets.
      Research
      Daily
      Crypto Daily Report
      Stay on top of the crypto markets with macro commentary, technical analysis, and the most relevant news.
      Intra month
      Crypto First Word from Tom Lee
      Hear directly from Tom Lee about important cryptocurrency developments.
      Weekly
      Crypto Technical Strategy
      From Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana to other coins, our Head of Technical Strategy highlights important price movement to help give you an edge.
      Weekly
      Crypto Weekly
      A must-read summarizing our key thoughts about the crypto market, price action, and developing trends.
      Weekly
      Funding Fridays
      Are you looking for investment opportunities in the crypto space? We explore early-stage crypto opportunities in this note about where the smart money is being invested!
      Weekly
      Coming Soon
      Crypto Events
      Never miss another conference, a high-impact software update, or an event that could be market-moving!
      Intra-month
      Deep Research Reports
      Our consulting business delivers incredible deep research reports to highlight the economics and viability of exciting crypto projects.
      Update daily
      Bitcoin Misery Index
      Keep track of bitcoin sentiment to plan your digital assets strategy.
      And More!
      FSI Academy
      Our main goal is to make you a better investor! This series will guide you through key financial concepts and topics in an understandable way.
      Community Questions
      We gather your inquiries and answer them in the most scalable way. Hear directly from our research principals!
      Community Interviews
      Get questions answered directly by our research heads and guest speakers.
      Get access to all the crypto research on FS Insight
      First Month Free!

More from the author

Disclosures (show)

Want to receive Regular Market Updates to your Inbox?

I am your default error :)