COVID-19 UPDATE. White House believes US past "apex", so how long does it take 30 nations for cases to fall 75%? Weak consumer = OW Consumer Discretionary

COVID-19 remains a global crisis and we realize that many people need to keep up with COVID-19 developments, particularly since we are moving into the more critical stage ("restart economy"), so feel free to share our commentary to anyone who has interest. Of all the important milestones in the past week, we believe the most significant from an equity market (which also drives the economy) is the S&P 500 closing above 2,793 (~2,800) as it represents a full 50% retracement of the decline and solidifies two things: (i) the bottom is in and (ii) we are in a bull market recovery, as bizarre as it sounds.  But you probably noticed that the market has shifted into the hands of "buyers" whereas sellers were in complete control from 2/19/2020 to 3/23/2020. And if we are to decipher the message of the equity market rally, it is likely telling us that conventional thinking about the path forward in COVID-19 is simply too pessimistic.  This makes sense to me, and if I could highlight some points: - The US reached peak cases likely on 4/10/2020, which is well ahead of White House guidance and Pres. Trump even observed this today; - As bad as the US economic data has been (retail sales + Empire + IP), I am surprised capacity utilization is still 73% (very high); - Bad news = OW Consu...

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