Why eyes are on New York to see turning point in COVID-19 crisis

We are sending an abbreviated COVID-19 update to reflect NY state data reported this am.Equity markets are weak to kick off the second quarter, as markets continue to struggle with the combination of US case growth and the concurrent weakening fundamentals of the economy.  And while markets are down broadly today, only 6 of 136 GICS S&P 500 Industries are up, there is less of the "sell everything" move in markets and even the VIX, while up at 57, remains below the mid-80s seen a week ago.  And while the White House has spoken of 100,000 to 250,000 total deaths and a crisis peaking in 4-6 weeks from now, the real template to watch remains New York City and New York.  NYC and NY state is where the first real exponential breakout took place and as the charts below show, this COVID crisis is first taking place in NY and then every subsequent local breakout will be the template for how NY fares (with some better vs worse based on preparedness and population density). - On a daily basis, NY is about 40% of all new cases and 40% of all deaths, so this state is the epicenter. - Charts below show how NY is the place to watch.  Followed by New Jersey, Louisiana, Georgia and Michigan (based on daily new cases). - The relatively good news is the calculated death rate (total deaths/t...

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