Is it possible that New York City is past "peak" COVID-19 cases? Data below... just asking ourselves this question
Our data science team has shifted their analytics to US COVID-19 statistics, and we will provide periodic updates as we get comfortable with our analytics. And the New York Times just opened its Github repository, as well.
We have been collecting data for New York City from these sources:
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary.pdf
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-main.page
And comprehensive NYC only data has been provided only since March 18th.
POINT #1: Manhattan (1 of 5 boroughs in New York City) looks like cases peaked on 3/22/2020.
This is the daily new positive cases for COVID-19 in Manhattan (one of 5 boroughs).
– The past two days have seen roughly the same daily new cases at 430 or so.
– This is down from 709 on 3/22/2020–that is 6 days ago
New York City went into full lockdown on 3/15/2020, or about 12 days ago. Is social distancing working?
– Even though we hear reports of people out and about, the case count has been remarkably FLAT. Linear and not exponential.
– We find it curious that Mayor DeBlasio has not been providing more comprehensive statistics on COVID-19 (NY Post Article “De Blasio won’t release key coronavirus stats despite promises of transparency”)
POINT #2: New York City-wide seems to be following the same trend, that peak new cases as 3/22/2020.
The combined data for the 5 boroughs is showing the same shape and arguably even faster improvements.
– Daily new cases for 3/27/2020 was 2,461, down from 3,100 from the day before and down from 4,385 on 3/25/2020.
– Testing has shifted to “on-site” but this is still a noticeable change.
The 5 boroughs are each individually showing this trend.
– Queens which was a hotbed has seen daily net new cases fall for each of the last 2 days and is now less than 50% below where it was 2 days ago.
– Brooklyn similarly is down from its peak on 3/22/2020
– and Bronx and Staten Island similarly.
POINT #3: What is the point of all this? Strict lockdown measures in place since 3/15/2020 and 12 days later, it seems to be working
Strick measures were put in place 3/15/2020, closing bars and restaurants and fitness centers. And in the ensuing 12 days, this social distance measure seems to be working.
– New York City has 4,721 residents EVER hospitalized for COVID-19 (discharged are not reducing this figure)
– yesterday, 798 were admitted, down from 1,039 the day before.
– The Mayor is asking for 30,000 ventilators
BOTTOM LINE: But the linear and slowing progression of spread, as shown, would suggest the City does not need 30,000 ventilators. This would imply 600,000 cases in NYC (5% need ventilators).
It is possible that an explosion of new cases is waiting. But this data bears watching.
Italy and Lombardi never saw a linearization of the cases until recently. So is this suggesting that New York City is through the worst?
We don’t want to make that conjecture.
Rather, we are highlighting that the case count in NYC is NOT FITTING THOSE EXPONENTIAL CURVES.
THAT IS A BIG DEAL.
