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First Word

WEBINAR ALERT: 5/19 AT 2PM ET FOR FSINSIGHT MEMBERS We are delighted to announce we are hosting a webinar with Tom DeMark, founder of DeMark Analytics.Equities have been in a relentless downturn since the start of 2022.While valuations have become considerably more attractive, and sentiment...

Clues continue to emerge for weakening labor = bad news is good for market stability

China ending Shanghai lockdowns sigh of relief and further alleviating downside pressure on stocks

WEBINAR ALERT: 5/19 AT 2PM ET FOR FSINSIGHT MEMBERS We are delighted to announce we are hosting a webinar with Tom DeMark, founder of DeMark Analytics.Equities have been in a relentless downturn since the start of 2022.While valuations have become considerably more attractive, and sentiment rock bottom, investors are still...

S&P 500 waterfall decline of 16% (5 mos) seen only 18 times since 1940 = signs closer to end of selloff

Good Morning, Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Chartbook. _FED POLICY IS ALREADY "BITING HARD" AFTER 3 HIKES—ON THE MARGIN, 3 MORE REASONS INFLATION PRESSURES MIGHT BE PEAKING_ Stocks continued their waterfall decline this past week, amplified by concerns of systemic risk as the crypto market took a gut punch. Many...

Market hypersensitive to inflation data points... but market sees declining forward inflation

To state the obvious (to those watching macro), Wed's April CPI print is going to be important. All markets are hyper-reactive to inflation's trajectory. And given the waterfall decline in stocks since the FOMC meeting, the market most likely to hyper-react are equities.I am not sure there is a single...

Despite crushing swings last week, stocks posted flat week… but signs inflationary pressures apexing

There was so much drama in the final days of last week, as markets had a "rethink" of the May FOMC meeting, it felt like the entire equity market was upended. Yet, one might be surprised to see that the S&P 500 was essentially flat last week:start 4,131.99end 4,123.80change -0.20%...

New BA.2.12.1 variant steadily gaining dominance. COVID-19 cases ticking up, but at a "linear" speed

This note only includes the COVID-19 update, as we sent out the STRATEGY SECTION on Thursday morning. POINT 1: TOTAL COVID-19 CASES 435,087 OVER PAST 7D (AVG 62,155 PER DAY), UP +72,676 (+10,382 PER DAY) VS SAME PERIOD 7D AGO...  _____________________________ CURRENT TRENDS -- COVID-19 CASES (PAST 7D VS. 7D...

Key takeaways from FOMC = gut check means markets too hawkish = good

Due to the importance of yesterday's FOMC, we are sending out the First Word today, instead of Friday. There will be a resend of today's note with updated COVID data tomorrow morning. _50BP DID NOT END THE WORLD..._ Equity markets rallied strongly following May FOMC. We will discuss our ...

When pundits panic, investors should counter-trade. 5 of last 6 FOMC, stocks rallied

If someone asked us to explain the primary difference in our relatively more sanguine view of the world versus consensus, it is really the difference between "fighting the Fed" and "counter-trading the panic." In many recent reports, we highlight (and continue to do so) how the bond market is doing...

4 reasons to view FAANG outperformance at end of April with credence. Market inverting and faster growers = lowest valuations...wut?

In fact, as noted by Ryan Detrick, Strategist at LPL, 2022 is the worst Jan to April start for the S&P 500 since 1939. Because the S&P 500 index was not launched until 1945, this is actually the worst YTD start for the S&P 500 ever.so it is no surprise...

  • First Word
April 29

4 reasons stock market yesterday is like a bad Nicholas Cage movie = so bad, it's good

I am a huge Nicholas Cage fan. Some of his earliest movies had an influence in my youth -- Peggy Sue Got Married, Moonstruck, Leaving Las Vegas, the Rock, Con-air, etc. Even some of my all-time favorite movies are Nicholas Cage movies like Family Man, or It Could Happen to...

  • First Word
April 27

Buyer's strike = busted tape. Nasdaq underperformance so bad, since 1985 = future relative gains

Markets are still rattled by war headlines. Russia announced plans to cut natural gas supplies to Poland. Russia is following through on its demands that gas supplies be paid in Rubles. And this appears in retaliation for Poland providing escalating support to Ukraine in the war efforts. And generally, this...