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First Word

First Word

  • First Word
December 1

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday STRATEGY: TWO 90% DOWN DAYS ARE A SIGN OF A BOTTOM, NOT A TOP _Market absolutely horrific ---> but two 90% down days = capitulation _Equities have been in a tailspin...

Fed lift-off getting pushed off + 20% drop in VIX = risk-on probabilities soar (buy this dip)
  • First Word
November 30

Fed lift-off getting pushed off + 20% drop in VIX = risk-on probabilities soar (buy this dip)

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday STRATEGY: VIX DOWN -20% + VIX TERM STRUCTURE STEEPENING = RISK-ON PROBABILITY SOAR _COVID-19 cases will be distorted for the next two weeks due to Thanksgiving _Underlying COVID-19 trends often get distorted due to holidays, something...

  • First Word
November 29

Omicron is an anagram (read below) and likely to turn Black Friday to Green Cyber Monday

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday STRATEGY: OMICRON IS AN ANAGRAM (READ BELOW) AND LIKELY TO TURN BLACK FRIDAY TO GREEN CYBER MONDAY _New meaning to "Black Friday" --> Panic around Omicron-variant hit on one of the least "liquid market" days _On...

  • First Word
November 24

US case surge is slowing, a temporary reprieve? Cases rising in 33 states (+3). "Last bullet fired" as White House SPR release backfires = buy Energy stocks

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY SKIP FRIDAY STRATEGY: "LAST BULLET FIRED" AS WHITE HOUSE SPR RELEASE BACKFIRES = BUY ENERGY STOCKS _Thanksgiving 2021 > Thanksgiving 2020 _This is a shortened trading week, as the US Thanksgiving holiday is November 25th. And this...

  • First Word
November 23

COVID-19 has essentially disappeared in Japan, not due to vaccinations. Powell re-nomination strengthens the case for stocks into YE and into 2022

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY SKIP FRIDAY STRATEGY: POWELL RE-NOMINATION STRENGTHENS THE CASE FOR STOCKS INTO YE AND INTO 2022 _COVID-19 HAS ESSENTIALLY DISAPPEARED FROM JAPAN, DESPITE VIRTUALLY NO RESTRICTIONS_ While all eyes have been on the parabolic rise in cases in...

  • First Word
November 22

Lockdowns meant to prevent overloading hospitals, if so, European policymakers panicking too early. Equities digesting and consolidating ahead of the prime seasonal period

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY SKIP FRIDAY STRATEGY: EQUITIES DIGESTING AND CONSOLIDATING AHEAD OF THE PRIME SEASONAL PERIOD _EUROPEAN COVID-19 FATIGUE TRIGGERING MASS PROTESTS OVER NEW LOCKDOWNS AND VACCINE MANDATES__ _Over the weekend, protests erupted across Europe over new lockdown measures and...

  • First Word
November 19

White House is keeping the market on "the cliff edge" this week, cases now rising in 30 states (+14)

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday STRATEGY: WHITE HOUSE IS KEEPING THE MARKET ON "THE CLIFF EDGE" THIS WEEK, CASES NOW RISING IN 30 STATES (+14) _14 MORE STATES SEE RISING CASES —> WAVE 4 UNDERWAY_ There are now 30 states with...

  • First Word
November 17

US has 9 states where cases per 1mm > Germany, yet there is no policymaker nor media panic --> markets should be watching but not wary

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday REGISTER NOW: EXCLUSIVE VIRTUAL CONFERENCE ON MARKET STRATEGY INTO THE YEAR-END AND BEYOND - TOMORROW AT 10:00AM ET... Please join us tomorrow - Thursday November 18 at 10:00am ET - for our annual virtual conference as...

  • First Word
November 16

Germany policymakers panic, but it is too early for financial markets to panic. Wait until "google search trends" panic

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday REGISTER NOW: EXCLUSIVE VIRTUAL CONFERENCE ON MARKET STRATEGY INTO THE YEAR-END AND BEYOND - THURSDAY (11/18) AT 10AM ET... Please join us on Thursday November 18 at 10:00am ET for our annual virtual conference as the...

  • First Word
November 15

Cases now rising in 16 states (+5 vs last week) but this is our baseline. While incoming inflation is "hot," financial markets (breakevens) see "cooling" of risk

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday REGISTER NOW: EXCLUSIVE VIRTUAL CONFERENCE ON MARKET STRATEGY INTO THE YEAR-END AND BEYOND - THURSDAY (11/18) AT 10AM ET... Please join us on Thursday November 18 at 10:00am ET for our annual virtual conference as the...

  • First Word
November 10

VIX surges but high-yield rises --> HY > VIX --> everything YE rally intact

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY SKIP Friday STRATEGY: VIX SURGES BUT HIGH-YIELD RISES --> HY > VIX --> EVERYTHING YE RALLY INTACT __WOKE DILEMMA: COVID-19 HAS CREATED 8.4 MILLION TONS OF EXCESS PLASTIC WASTE__ __We all know that mitigation measures in COVID-19,...

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