First Word
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Gov Shutdown More "Noise" to Us and could Put Fed on a "Structural Pause." We Think PCE Friday Will Confirm Inflation on a "Glidepath Lower."
We discuss: The recent GDP release, our PCE estimates for Friday, and what a Government Shutdown could mean for the stock market. Please click below to view today’s Macro Minute (Duration: 7:41). https://vimeo. com/869370644/de2f1c0e63? share=copy ______________________________________________________________ The most important data point over the past two days was Q2 GDP which came in...
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Internals of Housing Data Less "Hot" than Headline Figure. Inflation Expectations Remain Anchored Which Is The Key To Us
We discuss: The weak market sentiment, today's housing data, and their implications on the forward inflation trajectory. Please click below to view today’s Macro Minute (Duration: 5:39). https://vimeo. com/868514511/e5537a9c13? share=copy ______________________________________________________________ Equities have further weakened to start this week, with the S&P 500 falling ~1% as of Tuesday's close. There were two...
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Equities reacted negatively post Powell, but the key to us remains inflation. As near-term headline risks loom, history suggests market could rally in 4Q.
We discuss: How markets took FOMC hawkish last week, but we think the key is still inflation, which is on a glidepath lower. Historical study suggests stocks could perform well in Q4 based on price action this year. Please click below to view today’s Macro Minute (Duration: 9:06). https://vimeo. com/867760988/6d7c716937? share=copy ______________________________________________________________ Last...
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GRANNY SHOTS: September Super Granny update.
WE WILL NOT BE HAVING AN ASSOCIATED WEBINAR FOR THE SEPTEMBER SUPER GRANNY UPDATE THIS MONTH.UPDATING 5 SUPER AND 5 SLEEPER GRANNIESCHARTBOOK LINKED ABOVE “Super Grannies” (long) and “Sleeper Grannies” are derived from our core stock list of 35 ideas called “Granny Shots”The rationale is many clients ask us to...
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3 reasons we think -2.5% decline is an over-reaction. "Higher for longer" is really "higher for longer DUE to higher GDP."
We discuss: why the "hawkish" take by markets from FOMC ultimately reverses in the next few weeks. There are 3 reasons, but the most important is the Fed funds YE 2024 is higher by +50bp because growth is raised by +40bp. Wouldn't it be worse if Fed raised GDP view...
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Markets apprehensive into Sept FOMC rate decision (Wed 2pm). Given S&P 500 oversold, history suggests stocks more likely to gain in the following week. Stay with Technology, Energy and Industrials
We discuss: why markets could react positively post-FOMC meeting this Wed. This reflects both a potential change in Fed view on inflation but also because equities are oversold. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (Duration: 6:29). https://vimeo. com/866146358/35cefb59d5? share=copy ______________________________________________________________ The FOMC will announce its rate decision on...
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ECB makes dovish turn, risk rallies… a harbinger to when that day arrives for Fed. Removing tactical OW of regional banks.
We discuss: It’s been a data heavy week, but the big news is ECB yesterday and it’s dovish impact on bond markets. Please click below to view today’s Macro Minute (Duration: 5:36). https://vimeo. com/864580944/d21ab7b5f5? share=copy ______________________________________________________________ The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce its September interest rate decision on 9/20 at 2:00pm...
- Intraday First Word
INTRADAY ALERT: August CPI "hot" but details better. Tape bombs ahead, so investors now likely wary until FOMC rate decision 9/20
THIS INTRADAY ALERT IS ONLY BEING SENT TO CLIENTS OF FS INSIGHT August CPI came in "hot" as Core CPI came in at +0.30% versus Street +0.20% and above our +0.16% to +0.18% estimate. The details, however, are better than the surface level readings.The details for August CPI are actually...
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A "hot" August CPI does not end equities, but it will raise the level of skepticism of Fed progress. Of last 6 CPI "misses" (hot), equities gained 4 of 6 times.
We discuss how consensus is now leaning towards a "hot" Aug core CPI. This does not necessarily hurt equites as of the last 6 "hot prints" stocks rallied 4 of the 6. Plus, it all comes down to details and how bonds react (Duration: 5:43). https://vimeo. com/863796767/ff55559ee7? share=copy ______________________________________________________________ August...
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Important week ahead, and we expect August CPI (9/13) of +0.20% core or less to further reduce odds of a Nov hike, a positive for equities. Even as UAW strike looms.
We discuss: An important week lies ahead, most notably August CPI on 9/13 but also $AAPL debut and potential UAW strike. That said, we still view Sept as front-loaded on softness and probabilities favor stocks rising after CPI. Please click below to view today’s Macro Minute (Duration: 6:39). https://vimeo. com/862983280/6a055ead82? share=copy...
