Financial Research

First Word

First Word

  • First Word
September 17

The best illustration of the "end date" of Delta variant is the continued downturn in cases in FL. Take a look at the case trends: - FL has been in back since mid-August - FL colleges are back in session - FL continues to take...

2020 thoughts --> EPS +10% + P/E flat (even upside) = S&P 500 > 3,450 and maybe 3,500-3,600
  • First Word
September 15

Day 2 SALT conference takeaways --> benefit of in-person interactions + crypto

As I noted a few times previously, this is the first "in-person" institutional investor conference since the start of the pandemic, which is the reason I found this event noteworthy. And many attendees have made the same comment -- this is the first conference they have attended since early 2020....

  • First Word
September 14

Multiple "less bad = good" things this week. With S&P 500 touching 50D, this is possibly the week that we start to see "less bad is good"

And we see the potential for many things to be viewed as less bad is good. Here is just a few examples: - COVID-19 Delta wave receding - Oil showing resilience - Washington tax plan is less bad than feared - Brazil is getting a reduced warning level from CDC...

  • First Word
September 13

Pronounced improvement in state-level case trends --> 18 rolling over vs 6 two weeks ago. Stocks "acting like death" but there are 3 (maybe 5) positive catalysts this week

In other words, the diffusion, or percentage of states seeing positive trends has turned more visibly positive. This is coming at a time when we were cognizant of the possible distortions from Labor Day plus the religious holidays. However, we are enough days into this to see consistent trends. -...

  • First Word
September 10

White House unveils "hammer" 6 step plan, escalating steps to contain COVID-19 = good. Sell Roshashana, Buy Yom Kippur more important in 2021.

The 6 step plan, in summary form: 1. Vaccination mandate for multiple employers: - private cos with > 100 employees require vaccination or weekly testing. - all federal workers and contractors and - required vaccination > 17 million healthcare workers that participate in Medicare and Medicaid. - calling on large...

  • First Word
September 8

USA COVID-19 data will be messy for the next few weeks. Consensus not that constructive, even among typical Americans

Labor Day - No First Word Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday STRATEGY: CONSENSUS NOT THAT CONSTRUCTIVE, EVEN AMONG TYPICAL AMERICANS _COVID-19 WILL COME TO AN END, BUT THE PATH THERE IS STILL UNCLEAR _Stocks started this shortened week on a weak note, with 3 of the major indices falling: -...

  • First Word
September 7

Post-Labor Day, things better 2021 vs 2020 and last 7 days encouraging. Investors seem overly focused on stagflation/inflation risks

Labor Day - No First Word Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday STRATEGY: INVESTORS SEEM OVERLY FOCUSED ON STAGFLATION/INFLATION RISKS PERSPECTIVE: LABOR DAY 2021 VS 2020 --> THINGS ARE MATERIALLY BETTER IN 2021 Labor Day 2021 is over. While this means "school is back in session," from a financial market's perspective,...

  • First Word
September 3

Daily cases flat vs 7D, staying flat but not rolling over. Multiple reasons for September rally, but key is "bad news is good news" --> Fed dovish

It is an obvious and long list. This is not the world's first pandemic, but it is the first that brought a full global economic shutdown. And it is the first that forced governments to impose lockdowns. So, the question of how many of these policies remain in place versus...

  • First Word
September 1

Sept incoming economic data likely 'soft' --> dovish Fed --> good for markets

We hosted a webinar with Anthony Scaramucci, founder of Skybridge Capital, Tuesday and it was really well attended with > 900 participants. Scaramucci’s Skybridge is the world’s largest fund of funds, and as a result, the firm has a lot of intelligence into both where capital is flowing ($8 billion)...

  • First Word
August 31

History shows strong equities strong in September when markets see strong 1H.

We are in the "dog days of August" and the final week of August, pre-Labor Day weekend, tends to be quiet. There is no reason to believe 2021 will be any different. A reminder, though, we are hosting a webinar with Anthony Scaramucci on Tuesday at 3pm for FSInsight clients....

  • First Word
August 30

USA cases promising --> cases flat/down (vs 7D ago) 3 of last 4 days. Central case is still "everything rally" into YE

The overall trend in US cases is promising. Take a look below, daily cases were flat/down for 3 of the last 4 days. This is a material break in trend, as cases have been rising steadily since early July. And recall, starting early July, equity markets experienced serious "chop" --...

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