First Word
MARKETING DECK: Supercycles intact. Wall of worries growing. Risk/reward positive.
NOVEMBER: FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN INTACT = UP NOVEMBERSTOCKS UP 6 MONTHS IN A ROW = NOV UP3Q25 EPS: MARGINS EXPANDING = POSITIVEFUND MANAGER CHASEWALL OF WORRY:(I)...
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First Word
Some understandable "chop" ahead to digest +2% October gains. But we see multiple reasons for S&P 500 to gain in November.
The S&P 500 is on track to close up 2% for October. Looking back at the month, the Oct 10th swoon (-3%) triggered many to...
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First Word
Key takeaway Fed presser: inflation close to target but jobs is weak = dovish. Trump-Xi meeting is "12" on a scale of 1 to 10 = positive for stocks.
The S&P 500 closed essentially "flat" Wednesday after the Fed FOMC Oct rate decision. The cut of -25bp was expected, but Fed Chair Powell's comments...
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First Word
Heavy week for 3Q25 EPS earnings. Polymarket shows expectations rising for "softer" Sept CPI reading.
Video_: _Sept Core CPI is reported this Friday. The first govt "macro report" since the shutdown started, which means investors will put a lot of...
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First Word
VIX surge to 25 shows "fear" creeping in. AAII flips negative again, which we view as contrarian positive. We still see S&P 500 7,000 by year-end.
The S&P 500 is up +1.17% so far this week and down -0.9% for the month. Not bad. But the level of "apprehension" for equities...
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First Word
US-China trade rhetoric heats up. 2025 proving to be worst year for fund manager in decades, setting up for performance chasing
Video_: _Markets were roiled by China headlines Tuesday, but we ultimately see this as noise. The bigger dynamic at play is the positive seasonals and...
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