First Word
June Core CPI Tuesday is the most consequential day next week, since will impact on Fed timing of cuts. 2Q25 EPS season also starts next week.
VIDEO: Next week is a heavy week of macro led by June core CPI and also the start of 2Q25 earning season. The Fed is...
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First Word
Mostly good news in the June NY Fed survey. 1-yr inflation back to pre-tariff levels, when the Fed was in "cutting mode."
Video: The June NY Fed consumer survey showed widespread good news for consumers, including 1-yr inflation expectations back to pre-tariff levels (when Fed was cutting),...
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First Word
July showing pullbacks remain shallow. The continued strength in high-yield shows the economy remains healthy.
VIDEO: Ahead of the June jobs report, bonds markets are quietly pricing in 2.6 cuts versus 1.7 after June FOMC. This while high yield spreads...
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First Word
3 things we are watching in July. Investors still stubbornly bearish after +28% gain from April lows.
VIDEO: We are keeping a "side eye" on a few things in July, including tariff deadlines, FOMC rate decision and the favorable seasonals. The latest...
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First Word
In our view, tariffs are more a "tax" and therefore not inflationary. Powell giving "glimpses" of dovish turn in testimony to Congress.
VIDEO: To us, we view tariffs as a "tax" even if the companies bear it, not consumers. And taxes are not inflationary, counter to Fed...
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First Word
Stocks to rally post-FOMC Wed. Rising chances of US involvement trigger risk-off, but high-yield and VIX suggest mild risks for stocks.
VIDEO: While Fed is not expected to cut Wed, we expect markets to rally given our view Fed has to acknowledge inflation is falling short of...
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Featured Research
Washed Out Stocks
