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Your Weekly Roadmap

Your Weekly Roadmap

Ursa major, the bear, has arrived, supplanting what had been a furiously fast correction in prior weeks. Indeed, it was a wild, volatile descent, and the fastest in history into a bear market. Just 16 trading sessions, from an all-time high (Feb. 19), was all it took. Having lived through three major bear markets, including a down 23% day in 1987, and a few near bears in between, I thought I had seen everything. Yet I have never seen the kind of selloff, in terms of speed of momentum reversal, even though 2008-2009 was scarier (so far) and 1987 was basically one day. In the case of the latter, the market had been going down already for over two months before dropping precipitously. This grizzly is unexpected and unprecedented. It has been coming only for days. Make no mistake: The bears will tell you it was in the cards, but don’t be fooled. No one but no one absolutely knew the coronavirus would appear, and more so, that the market would take it so badly. Unfortunately, a lot of price damage has been done this week to the U.S. equity market, as well as emotional, economic and technical harm. For more on the latter see Rob Sluymer’s comments on page 9. For the week, the Standard & Poor’s index fell to 2,711, or down about 9% on the week. The SPX entered a bear market Thursday, which was the second worst single market day in history, so at least you can tell your children. I’ve experienced the top two. The MSCI global stock market index had the worst day on record. The Dow is off 22% from its Feb. 12 record, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are 20% and 18% from their Feb. 19 peaks, respectively. There have been times when the market has been able to recover (see page 9) but also times when it has not. In the 1987 bear, stocks returned to new highs in 22 months. But I don’t have to tell you what happened in 1929. For the record, on average, a bear market for the DJIA lasts 206 trading days, while the average bear period for the S&P 500 is about 146 days, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Now there are several reasons investors have abandoned stocks, but they are all connected to the spread of the coronavirus, because there is likely to be a global economic slowdown. How deep is hard to tell. Some expect a global recession, some do not. Investors left stocks for bonds because of the travel ban to Europe, announced by President Donald Trump and what’s viewed as his poor response to the virus spread; the precipitous drop in oil prices to around $31 per barrel from $53 in mid-February; and the declaration of a global pandemic by the World Health Organization Wednesday. Whether the latter proves to be the bottom marker if stocks recover remains to be seen, but that’s my bet. What the Federal Reserve will do continues to be a big investor concern. Markets are expecting an outsized response soon from the Fed. For more on this see page 6. The president has called for the FOMC to drop the Fed funds rate to zero. What gives me some pause for the near term is that the market tried to mount rallies more than once last week, and that of Friday’s in particular basically fizzled. I have to admit it’s not very encouraging. As my colleague Tom Lee says in his report below, investors are looking for signs on the trajectory of this pathogen. Will it fade fairly quickly with few fatalities and minor economic disruption or not? The market typically makes knee-jerk emotional reactions, shooting first and asking questions later. Our shop believes the outbreak will be in months not quarters. Once the peak has been reached, the market can make a better assessment of the economic damage. It’s a given that the first and second quarters will be hurt. According to The Wall Street Journal, economists sharply cut forecasts for the U.S. economy this year, predicting it will contract in the second quarter and raising expectations for a recession as the coronavirus spread around the world. For more on this see page 6. Perhaps investors will give corporates a pass in 2Q EPS when all the CEOs likely line up to say how bad coronavirus was on profits. Seems discounted already. Lawmakers and the Trump administration are nearing an agreement on legislation aimed at aiding Americans affected by the COVID-19 spread. For more on this see page 11. As of Friday, according to the John Hopkins Center for Systems and Science Engineering, compared to one week ago there were about 137,500 confirmed cases of COVID-19 vs. 101,000 last week and 84000 the week before; deaths are 5,100 vs 3,460 and 3,000, respectively, with the overwhelming majority of both in China. Questions? Contact Vito J. Racanelli at vito. racanelli@fsinsight. com or 212 293 7137. Or go to

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Earnings Recession Talk Quiet as Investors Look to 2020

Have you noticed that all those loud concerns about the 2019 earnings recession have receded over past few weeks? Previously there were screaming headlines about it. Why is that? Well, with the market hitting all-time highs in July and again recently, it tends to put a damper on such worries. Investors now ignore it. Even so, many forget that the stock market is a machine that’s generally pretty good at discounting the longer-term future—if sometimes poor in the short term. There are certainly issues that will continue to cause anxiety—U.S. China trade and the global economic slowdown remain pebbles in the market’s shoes—but earnings growth no longer seems to be one of them. With 2019 pretty near the end, investors are discounting future growth and the 2020 earnings increase for the S&P 500 index looks healthy, at double digit percentage growth. First, let’s get 2019 out of the way. We are now nearly all the way through the third quarter reporting season, with the great majority of companies in the SPX having announced. According a recent report from FactSet, third quarter earnings reports are steadily coming in less bad than expected, at about less than negative 3%, which is better than -3.7%, -4.1% and -4.7%, respectively, over the past few weeks. The blended revenue growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q3 2019 is around 3%. What’s important to note is the trend towards improved—less negative—earnings expectations. In general during bull markets, analysts typically would be too optimistic and have to ratchet back estimates as the year progresses. Here we find them forced to improve their numbers because they are too pessimistic. That’s likely due to the overwhelming belief among investors that this decade old bull market is on its last legs. That’s a contrarian and bullish sign. The trend is your friend here, and analysts were doing the same in the first quarter and second quarters, both of which posted slight percentage drops compared to the corresponding year ago periods. That’s where all the earnings recession talk originated. In this year’s fourth quarter, analysts estimate SPX EPS at about $42, up slightly from a bit over $41 in the same period of 2018. There is a chance this will turn slightly negative. As for 2019 SPX EPS growth as a whole, it is currently estimated at about 1% or so, depending on which data provider you consult. And, as I noted above, if the fourth quarter undergoes the same trend as the previous ones, then for the year EPS growth could even be slightly negative. Analysts estimate SPX 2019 EPS at about $163, up slightly from $162 in 2018, when growth was over 20%. Remember, however, 2018 was helped by a one-time reduction in corporate earnings enacted in late 2017 by the Trump administration. The tax cuts have been lapped. The two-year average growth since 2017 is 9.5%. So what about 2020? The bottom up consensus of industry analysts is for SPX EPS to be about $180 next year, or a 10% growth from 2019. My colleague Tom Lee has an estimate of about $184 next year. And Tom Lee also makes a good case for U.S. growth to begin reaccelerating soon. He says three factors suggest the US Purchasing Managers Indexes are bottoming: long term yield curve (discussed previously in these pages); key groups sensitive to PMIs are rallying, and ISM New Orders/Inventory looks like it has bottomed. In the first place, the long-term yield curve is steepening. The long-term yield curve (10-month change of UST 30-yr-10-yr yield spread) signaled 16M ago a downturn in ISM PMI was coming. Since our April 2017 study, the long-term yield curve seems to be doing a pretty good job of predicting ISM. The continued weakness in 2018-19 was predicted 16 months ago. More importantly, if the pattern holds, then the ISM should be bottoming soon with an upturn expected as we move into year end. Second, PMI sensitive groups are rallying, such as semis (since 5/28), Germany’s DAX (8/16) and capital goods (10/21). Third, another possible clue is the collapse in the ratio of ISM new orders/inventory. Normally, a collapse in new orders is a foreboding sign, as it points to a collapse in the business cycle. However, if businesses slowed ordering due to “trade shock,” then this is what could be behind the recent plunge. Inventories take time to rebuild. Tom has raised his 3125 target to 3185 for the SPX yearend and the rally should continue into 2020. It doesn’t hurt, too, that the market is about to enter what is historically been the six-month period characterized by good gains. And November itself, over the past 100 years, has been kind, with an average 0.89% return and positive nearly two-thirds of the time. The market closed this week at 3090, an all-time high and up 23% on the year. As Tom Lee wrote this week, this has been one of the strongest years for equities in the past 20 years. And if his analysis is correct (see next section), there could be further upside ahead. Questions? Contact Vito J. Racanelli at vito. racanelli@fsinsight. com or 212 293 7137. Or go to

Stocks Take Break; Raising S&P 500 target to 3,800 for Year End

Given the fierce move by equities in the past few weeks, it is not entirely surprising to see stocks consolidate over the last few days.  And not surprisingly, there are more than a few who believe markets have become overly exuberant.  To an extent, I understand this. There has been both a sizable move in markets coupled with a sizable rotation into epicenter stocks. However, I still see upside into year end. More on this below. On the COVID-19 front, daily cases came in at 181,547 on Thursday, and Wave 3 remains on the rise. And although the daily change vs 7D ago, which is the key leading indicator we track, dipped below 20,000 on Wednesday, it jumped again on Thursday to 32,824. And daily deaths from COVID-19 in wave 3 are now meaningfully higher than the death toll seen in wave 2 and are only 27% below the peaks in Wave 1. Given daily cases are almost four times the magnitude of wave 1 and are a leading indicator of mortalities, we should expect daily deaths from COVID to surge in the coming weeks. But it is worth mentioning that in just the past few weeks, we have witnessed advances in the treatment and prevention of COVID-19. While we are not yet seeing this in reduced cases or mortality, these collectively should slow the scourge of COVID-19 and eventually stop it in its tracks (vaccine). New treatments like Olumiant, etc also reduce the risk of mortality, so we can be less pessimistic than previously. STRATEGY: Raising S&P 500 target to 3,800 by year-end (vs 3.525 prior) This week, I highlighted ten main tailwinds that I see driving P/E expansion which are causing me to raise my 2021 P/E estimate to 19.7X from 18.3X. This translates to an S&P 500 target of 3,800 (based on EPS of $193). Thus, we are revising our YE target up from 3,525 (which we raised on 8/13) which represents about 6.5% upside. For context, this is about the magnitude of a typical Santa Claus rally, so the expectation is that markets see their typical seasonal gains. And form a valuation standpoint, this target P/E of 19.7x is about the same as the high yield implied P/E (inverse yield to worst) of 20.6x. We have written multiple commentaries about the tailwinds for epicenter stocks, and in particular, how they are the most leveraged to both vaccine/therapeutics (i.e demand recovery) and economic recovery (i.e. operating leverage via cost cutting). And interestingly, while the broad-based S&P 500 index was “treading water” for the greater part of this week, Epicenter stocks took the lead in response to the improved healthcare outlook. During this same period and using the SPHB ETF as a proxy for epicenter stocks, they have risen strongly in that same 9-day period with SPHB rising approximately 15% in that timeframe versus a nearly flat S&P 500. I continue to see the best risk/reward in the epicenter. However, unlike earlier in 2020, there is much greater visibility and tangibility to a vaccine and cure for COVID-19. Thus, the ability for markets to look beyond contemporaneous cases should be much higher. And interestingly, even though epicenter stocks have outperformed the past two weeks or so, this outperformance has been a fraction of the approximately 7,000bp YTD outperformance of growth stocks and is still weaker than the post wave 1 epicenter rally. Thus, I see substantial upside for epicenter stocks. Bottom Line: I see upside for equity P/E ratios rising which increases my S&P 500 target to 3,800. I continue to see epicenter stocks as the most attractive risk/reward. Figure Comparative matrix of risk/reward drivers in 2020Per FSInsight Figure: FSInsight Portfolio Strategy Summary - Relative to S&P 500** Performance is calculated since strategy introduction, 1/10/2019

‘Smart Money’ Vs. ‘Dumb Money’?; Both Buying Stocks

Who you gonna believe, smart money or dumb money? There are times when the trading activity of smart money—that is, institutional investors, hedge funds and that illustrious ilk—differs markedly from the dumb money. On Wall Street, the latter is the less than respectful way the pros refer to the retail investor, and it has always reminded me of the great book, “Where are the Customers’ Yachts.” (The title refers to a story about a visitor to New York who admired the yachts of the brokers. Naively, he asked where all the customers’ yachts were? But none could afford yachts though—or because—they followed their brokers’ advice.) The smart money indicator, as traditionally interpreted, says that the emotional ‘dumb’ money tends to trade in the morning, typically at the open, while the more measured ‘smart’ money waits until the end of the day to make moves. It’s trend-based view of intraday price patterns demonstrating investors’ sentiment. It was popularized by money manager Don Hays. The main idea is that the majority of traders (emotional, news-driven) overreact at the beginning of the trading day because of the overnight news and economic data. There is also a lot of buying on market orders and short covering at the opening. Smart, experienced investors start trading closer to the end of the day, after having the opportunity to evaluate market performance. If smart money is buying an asset and dumb money is selling, the pros take that as a bullish sign. The inverse is taken as a bearish sign. You might or might not agree with that, but there’s a contrarian logic there. But what does it mean when they are both buying? That’s the case in 2019, according to data from Bespoke Investment Group. For BIG, “dumb money” is considered to be the more reactive traders/investors who trade based on the headlines right at the open. Conversely, the more thoughtful “smart money” waits for things to shake out before acting. In order to track the sentiment of each group and make comparisons, BIG considers the dumb money to be the market’s action during the first half hour of the trading day, while the last hour of the trading day is representative of the smart money. Let’s start with the latter, since they are supposed to be so smart. What are they doing with equities? In short, they are buying. In a recent report, BIG notes that in 2019 there has been a consistent trend of buying in the last hour of trading and that’s continued into the first half of July. The S&P 500 index’s average last hour gain of 11 basis points as of mid-July is nearly twice the average of any other hourly interval. The chart nearby shows a composite of the S&P 500’s intraday performance in 2019 (blue line) and so far in July through 7/16 (green line). As shown in the chart, the last hour of trading has been positive both on a year to date and month to date basis. That kind of strength into the close is generally considered a positive trend as it indicates a willingness on the part of investors to tolerate the overnight risk of any potential negative headlines. That’s even more impressive these days given all the potential issues swirling around out there, BIG says. The chart below breaks out the intraday performance of the S&P 500 on an hourly basis throughout the trading day so far in 2019. For the entire year, performance has been strong nearly throughout the day. You can see that the so-called “dumb money” has been buying too, at the open. The strongest interval of the day has been the opening half-hour with an average gain of 3.4 basis points, and the only hour of the day that has averaged a decline is the hour from 2-3PM Eastern time. From there, though, the bulls have stepped in during the last hour of the day and the rally reaccelerates. To me, this suggests that—as our team has been saying on this website—that it’s rally on for stocks. I’ll be watching for what the so-called smart money does, and if they begin to sell en masse, it would be a negative sign, especially if “dumb money” kept on buying. Last week, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed at 2,932, down 3.1%. Quote of the Week: WSJ: An [Instagram] ‘LIKE’ has value beyond its function as a digital ego stroke. Questions? Contact Vito J. Racanelli at vito. racanelli@fsinsight. com or 212 293 7137. Or go to

S&P 500 Sets New All-Time High; Falling VIX = Risk-On

If you had any reservations about whether last week’s rally was sustainable, this week’s performance was decisive. On top of a 7% rally last week, the S&P 500 rose another 2.2% this week to 3,585; a new all-time high for the index. And I see several reasons that push the market and epicenter stocks in particular, higher into year end. More on this below. COVID-19 is spreading across the US at an accelerating rate and as we commented earlier this week, the US could see >200,000 cases within a few weeks. The tally for Thursday was >148,000 (+34,000 vs 7D ago), so by Thanksgiving, daily cases should surpass 200,000. And given flu season lasts until Feb 2021, a peak in cases is still sometime away. But the states we are watching most closely are those with fastest case growth in Wave 3, WI, IL, ID, ND, SD, UT, or WIINSU. With the exceptions of ND and SD, daily cases are still surging there. And while we are seeing soft lockdowns in New York and even Illinois, we have yet to see real panic by policymakers in these wave 3 states. Interestingly, the hospitalization coefficient (or % of new cases requiring hospitalization) varies widely by state. Take North Dakota and Utah for example. These wave three states have a coefficient around 0.4%, which translates to about 1 in 250 confirmed COVID-19 cases resulting Compare this with Connecticut and New Jersey. The coefficient In these wave 1 states is 2.7% and 3.1%, or 1 in 37 and 1 in 32, respectively. That is a massive differential. A COVID-19 confirmed case in CT/NJ, aka NY tristate, is basically 10X more likely required to be hospitalized. Wow. Is this due to demographics (age), co-morbidities (obesity, smoker?), or just plain bad luck? We have no idea. But within the major wave 3 states, which I refer to as WIINSU states, they are dealing with less severe forms of COVID-19. And looking at mortality rates (daily deaths), the severity of COVID-19 in wave 3 states is running below Waves 1 and 2. Wave 1 saw a massive level of carnage in the NY tristate area with 20 deaths per 1mm. Wave 2 saw the states of FL, CA, AZ, TX, or F-CAT see daily deaths of 7 per 1mm. Wave 3, so far, is running below that level of 7 deaths per 1mm residents seen in wave 2 for F-CAT states. So, despite record cases in Wave 3, the daily deaths have trailed what we saw in Wave 1 and Wave 2. In other words, the level of mortality is far lower. STRATEGY: Is 200,000 daily cases enough to stop the epicenter rally? For the better part of the last few weeks, we have seen a fierce rally in epicenter stocks, and gasoline was added this week with the Pfizer vaccine news. But over the past few days, the epicenter rally has run into a brick wall. Did the surge in cases finally break the market's tolerance? Was stimulus talk failure on Thursday throwing water on Washington getting something done? Is this just profit taking? I don't know. But I think the risk/reward is favorable for epicenter stocks into year-end, even as COVID-19 cases are rising. I see major developments that favor these stocks: (i) Development towards a vaccine are now outweighing the headwinds of rising COVID-19 cases, (ii) Europe COVID-19 cases are indeed rolling over (iii) Retail investors are finally moving cash off sidelines -- they are going to become dip buyers, and (iv) the VIX, a measure of market's anticipated volatility, looks ready to fall below 20. The VIX, has not been below 20 since the start of the pandemic and in our view, a move below 20 would be a major risk-on signal, as it would suggest that investors see lower volatility in the coming months. This would be quite a change for much of 2020. And if so, investors would not only be more risk-on but we could see a risk on investment leverage as well. In other words, this would be more firepower to buy equities. This week we also updated our Trifecta Epicenter stock list. These are the stocks which were hit the hardest by the pandemic and have the greatest operating leverage to a re-opening. And we like the earnings upside in these stocks, because of the massive cost reset. The stocks are based on positive views coming from the trifecta of: (i) Quant (tireless Ken), (ii) Global Portfolio Strategy (Brian Rauscher, aka Rocky) and (iii) Technicals (Rob Sluymer). Bottom Line: I think the risk/reward is very favorable for epicenter stocks into year-end, even as COVID-19 cases are rising. A break below 20 in the VIX would be a major risk-on signal and would equate to more firepower to buy equities. Figure Comparative matrix of risk/reward drivers in 2020Per FSInsight Figure: FSInsight Portfolio Strategy Summary - Relative to S&P 500** Performance is calculated since strategy introduction, 1/10/2019

Stocks up 7.3% in Big Week; Potential for 10% Rally into YE

After notching four consecutive days of gains, the S&P 500 took a well-deserved break and finished flat on Friday, leaving a massive 7.3% weekly rally intact. I consider this a huge win, especially in the face of a still undecided election outcome. Since the start of this rally at the end of October, we are now nearing the September 2020 highs around 3,580. And I see further upside into year end. More on this below. As for COVID-19, the spread continues at an accelerating pace. This week, daily cases came in above 100,000 for the first time and they seem set to rise further.  The fastest spread remains in the wave three states, in particular, WI, IL, ID, ND, SD, UT, or WIINSU. Within WIINSU, the most rapid spreads are in North Dakota and South Dakota. In these states, daily cases per one million residents are roughly four times the amplitude seen in wave one and wave two states. Wow. These states also have very low levels of testing (the positivity rate is >50%) and daily deaths per one million residents, while still below the peaks seen in New York City/Tristate region, have surpassed Italy in its darkest days. Peeling back the onion another layer, I think county level data bears watching; especially in these states that are seeing massive outbreaks. Looking at the percentage of the state where daily cases are exceeding certain thresholds (e.g. 1,500 daily cases per one million residents – which is where Miami peaked), the situation in South Dakota could provide some insight into what signs of “herd immunity” look like. Cases are rising in SD and I have not found a single statewide policy action taken. And interestingly, the percentage of counties with daily cases exceeding 1,500 cases in South Dakota is declining, which could prove to be a data fluke or could be first signs of “herd immunity”. I think this bears watching. STRATEGY: Was this rally justified, even with a contested election? In our view, if one believes more than one of the following factors below, then the answer is yes. (i) Stocks already discounted a contested election and fell 10% in the past month, (ii) Investors were cautiously positioned into election day (cash on sidelines >$4.5T), (iii) Tech rallied due to Republicans holding the Senate (tax cuts off table), (iv) Mutual fund/ year-end tax loss selling is over and seasonal weakness is ending, (v) Santa Claus rally still in play, (vi) Republicans holding the Senate makes fiscal stimulus prior to year-end more likely (vs lame duck), (vii) Republicans holding Senate maintains a balance of power which is good, (viii) many of our clients were bracing for a limit down Tuesday overnight futures session, so markets priced in a scary night, and (ix) the VIX collapse suggested the market saw more certainty in the election outcome compared to the official electoral college. So, as you can see, there are multiple reasons that stocks were relieved. In fact, this goes back to a simpler observation: less uncertainty, is incremental certainty and this supports a risk on sentiment. So, I think the rally in stocks makes sense and still see the potential for a 10% rally into year end, taking the S&P 500 to 3,600 while noting that a protracted legal battle that morphs into a street level chaos and violence could be a headwind. We have written exhaustively about why the epicenter stocks (aka cyclical tilt) post-election day was the most logical (both under a Biden and a Trump win, and even contested). But consider the timeline shown to the right. Into year end, a rollover in Europe COVID-19 cases and fiscal stimulus create a favorable environment for epicenter stocks to lead. And looking forward to 2021, positive developments on the vaccine/therapeutics front and US COVID-19 wave 3 ending create a favorable environment for epicenter stocks. Bottom Line: Based on several factors, the S&P 500’s strong rally this week seems justified, even with a contested election outcome. I see the potential for a 10% rally for stocks and still think epicenter stocks make the most sense. Figure Comparative matrix of risk/reward drivers in 2020Per FSInsight Figure: FSInsight Portfolio Strategy Summary - Relative to S&P 500** Performance is calculated since strategy introduction, 1/10/2019

Stocks Fall Again; Odds Heavily Favor a Post-Election Rally

This has been an ugly week for the stock market with the Standard and Poor’s 500 index declining 5.6% and all sectors deeply in the red. And also of note, the VIX spike above 40 for the first time in months this Wednesday. Nevertheless, I think risk/reward remains attractive and the odds heavily favor a post-election rally. More on this below. On the COVID-19 front, in a nutshell, it is spreading and much worse in Europe but mortality is falling. The skeptics would say mortality is low because the virus is making its way to the vulnerable cohorts (lag). Others would point to the “deadwood” issue and many of the vulnerable have already been killed. Therapeutics are far better. And mitigation is better. But the key issue is avoiding the level of policymaker panic that would lead to broad economic shutdowns.

Stocks Down 0.5% on Week; Stimulus Should be “when not if”

One of the top market rules for me, maybe even “rule #1,” is never to try to impose my views on the markets.  And perhaps, it is more useful to try to decipher the message from market behavior.  If I had to describe equities over the past week, they seemed to have been treating fiscal stimulus as a binary event. Regardless of the fact that this seems more of a “when not if” question to me. More on this below. On the COVID-19 front, the trend in daily cases continued rising this week. This has been the case for the past few weeks and I see two major takeaways: (i) US cases could reach 70,000 within 2 weeks, matching the July highs, (ii) Because the spread is primarily in 11 states, we might be nearing peak velocity in those states. We are still in wave 3 of COVID-19 in the US. And this wave, so far, is primarily a spread of cases in states that were largely unscathed in wave 1 (NY tristate +MA +RI) and wave 2 (FL, CA, AZ, TX, or F-CAT along with 19 tag along states). And this means COVID-19 is finding its way into areas of the US which are “caught off guard.”

In Choppy Week for Markets Stocks Finish up 0.2%

Equity markets were choppy over the past week. And while impacted by the stalemate in Washington over the fiscal stimulus and the surging COVID-19 cases in Europe and the US, the Standard and Poor’s Index finished the week essentially flat; up 0.2%. Unfortunately, COVID-19 is spreading at a faster rate in the US. While cases are spreading in nearly every state, this surge since early September is being driven by a new set of about 20 states. Wave 1 was NY tristate, wave 2 was FL, CA, AZ, TX, or F-CAT, and as the chart below shows, these other 20 or so states are driving wave 3. Daily cases are spreading at such a high-speed in these states to hopefully cause their residents to take appropriate action. Similar to wave 1 and wave 2, I think it’s possible that we see this third wave peak within the next 2 weeks. And if these states avoid a shutdown, this would be good news.

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