First Word
Macro Strategy
First Word
Macro Strategy
- First Word
- First Word
GRANNY SHOTS: Apr 2024 rebalance +7 adds. SMID Granny Shots +20 stocks. April Super and Sleeper Grannies. WEBINAR WED!!!
On Wednesday, 4/17 , we update our Granny Shots. If you have not yet registered, sign up with the webinar block below. ___________________________________GRANNY SHOTS APRIL QUARTERLY REBALANCE TODAYUPDATING 5 SUPER AND 5 SLEEPER GRANNIESUPDATING 5 SUPER AND 5 SLEEPER SMID GRANNIESSEE BELOW FOR ADDS AND DELETES TO DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE...
- First Word
The coming week is an important "fragility test" for markets as equities sit at 50dma. While de-risking is "knee jerk" response, this dip will likely be bought. In contrast to 2022 Ukraine-war eve, Fed is dovish.
VIDEO: The market faces an important fragility test this week, but to us, the key lies in the amount of required de-leveraging and also Fed stance. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:29). https://vimeo. com/934618745/2763fd8721? share=copy Over the weekend, Iran launched an attack on Israel, broadening the geopolitical risks in...
- Intraday First Word
INTRADAY ALERT: March CPI creates max pain moment. Why is CPI "hot" but U Mich shows falling inflation expectations? "hot" CPI due to same issues --> auto insurance and auto-related
March CPI released came in "hot" with Core CPI of +0.36% vs Street of +0.30% and this is triggering a sizable sell-off in equities. This is fueling the skepticism of the "inflation is stubborn" cohorts, but as we discuss below, this is a "maximum pain" moment for stocks -- that...
- First Word
We are still buying dips (even these baby dips). March CPI could be upside catalyst for stocks to break this 18 day consolidation.
VIDEO: Stocks have been rangebound for 18 days now. March CPI could be upside catalyst on a good reading Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:10). https://vimeo. com/932666595/20a87a6308? share=copy Equities have been rangebound (aka consolidating) since March 15th. Since October 2023 ("bond market panic low"), a similar 25 day consolidation...
- First Word
Last week's market "stress test" reveals investors lean bearish. Wed is first "clean" CPI (March) in 2024, and likely a positive catalyst for equities.
VIDEO: The first "clean" CPI report is released Wed (March CPI) and we expect this to show the prevailing trend -- that inflation is falling like a rock Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:45). https://vimeo. com/931776017/14ecf5caf3? share=copy Last week was "stress test" of sorts for equity markets. The combination...
- First Word
Equities soft into March jobs report (Friday). The 6 most recent instances of weak into jobs day saw strong gains 1-week and 1-month later (5 of 6 times). We expect similar.
VIDEO: Thursday afternoon sell-off of 2% is creating a buying opportunity into Friday's jobs report. There are 6 times stocks fell 1-day and 1-week into the jobs report. 5 of 6 times saw sizeable gains afterwards. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 05:58). https://vimeo. com/930869490/67be69165a? share=copy Equities have struggled over...
- First Word
5 reasons we are buying this "inflation-fear" 2-day dip. Wed could be the turning date higher.
VIDEO: We discuss the 5 reasons we are buying this 2-day dip. Probabilities favor a turn upwards Wed Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 04:01). https://vimeo. com/930087070/3416b886fb? share=copy Ever since the March ISM manufacturing showed a somewhat "hot" prices paid and coupled with the creeping rise in oil, equities...
- First Word
Three empirical reasons small-caps set to outperform in 2024 by as much as 50%. R2K EPS growth +690bp faster but trades at a 41% P/E discount. Feb Core PCE (Fri) likely below consensus = good
Recently, I was a panelist at an investment conference (thank you, Stephanie Link, for inviting me) and a snarky panelist, a hedge fund manager, started to ridicule the idea of buying small-caps. To me, this was a confirmation signal that small-caps are so disdained - that a wrong-way-Charlie type can be...
- First Word
GRANNY SHOTS: March 2024 Super Granny update. Still risk-on as still "gas in the tank."
On Friday, 3/22, we hold our monthly webinar on the Top 5 “Super” and Bottom 5 “Sleeper" ideas within our Large Cap Granny Shot and SMID Granny Shot portfolios. We also provide a Macro Update. If you have not yet registered, sign up with the webinar block below. ___________________________________UPDATING 5...
- First Word
5 reasons we expect stocks to rally post-FOMC (Wed 2pm ET). Technicals positive and hence, still "gas in the tank"
VIDEO: We see 5 reasons stocks rally post-FOMC, even if the Fed sounds cautious on the progress of inflation. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 04:19). https://vimeo. com/925149195/48f5ee3caf? share=copy The S&P 500 has been soft into the March FOMC rate decision, set to be released at 2pm...
