First Word
- First Word
- First Word
Probabilities suggest "hot" Feb core CPI above consensus of +0.30%. Jan "hot" CPI drove a 3% sell-off. But with "gas in the tank," this is a buy the dip moment.
VIDEO: February CPI is reported on Tuesday. I think there’s a risk that it’s a hot number, but it’s probably similar to January when you wanted to buy that 3% pullback that follows a hot CPI. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:14). https://vimeo. com/921890821/f73a30615a? share=copy Feb...
- First Word
Stocks wobble to start the week: too early to say "no gas left in tank." But, this is a maturing rally at 19 weeks and +26% gains.
VIDEO: This is the first time in awhile that stocks fell on "good news" -- yields fell, and stocks down. We know there is a lot of important macro in coming days including Fed Chair Powell testimony to Congress, the Feb jobs report and Feb CPI (duration: 4:00). https://vimeo. com/919802506/ab8fd72d53?...
- First Word
Exiting Feb, S&P 500 +7% YTD. Next key decision point is Feb CPI on March 12. Beware of "residual seasonality"
VIDEO: We discuss how the key date is likely March 12, Feb CPI day. The key is the residual seasonal problem in Jan often spills into Feb Please click below to view our Macro Minute (Duration: 4:53). https://vimeo. com/918123015/5ddcb628c6? share=copy With the first two months of 2024 behind us, the S&P...
- First Word
NVDA 4Q23 EPS increase was $10.7b of S&P 500 EPS gain $34.9B (31%). AMZN another 30%. Ex-bottom 15 cos, S&P 500 EPS growth >14%
VIDEO: NVDA accounted for 31% of all profit growth in 4Q23, so a strong argument against a bubble. Inflation remains the unknown near-term. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (Duration: 5:02). https://vimeo. com/916573163/51cdaa4d4c? share=copy With just a few trading days left in February, the S&P 500 is set to...
- First Word
Yesterday shows still "gas in the tank" of current rally (17 weeks now). NVDA was good EPS = rising stock. Warning sign is stocks falling on good news.
VIDEO: With NVDA 17.43% EPS behind us, the focus will shift back to macro and inflation and Fed. Generally, we see potential positive surprise for Feb CPI (lower than consensus). Please click below to view our Macro Minute (Duration: 05:29). https://vimeo. com/915706918/727ef4dd1d? share=copy The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high yesterday reaching 5,087 pushing YTD...
- First Word
GRANNY SHOTS: February 2024 Super Granny update.
Today, 2/21, we hold our webinar on the top 5 “Super Grannies” and bottom 5 “Sleeper Grannies." We also provide a Macro Update. If you have not yet registered, sign up with the webinar block below. ________________________________________________ VIDEO: For the 1H top, there are 3 things we are generally looking...
- First Word
Yesterday was unlikely the 1Q24 market top. Feels more like profit-taking as prices retrace gains of last 4 days. Proper yesterday is "sell off on good news" not a bad CPI report.
VIDEO: Yesterday's 2% selloff is an over-reaction to the hot CPI print. We also think it is a touch early to call for a top in equity markets for 1Q24. Please click below to view our macro minute (duration: 6:13). https://vimeo. com/912718090/90dc84e5d5? share=copy Tuesday's selloff in equites is the largest...
- Alert
INTRADAY ALERT: Equities over-reacting to "hot" Jan CPI. The 1Q24 top will be when "stocks sell off on good news" -- so today is not likely the top.
THIS INTRADAY ALERT IS SENT SOLELY TO CLIENTS OF FS INSIGHT Equites are selling off >1% today ($IWM off >3%) after Jan CPI came in "hot" vs consensus with Core CPI +0.39% (vs consensus +0.30%). Is this an over-reaction? Yes. Should investors buy this dip? Yes. We think this is...
- First Word
Equity markets near-term supported by "angry bears" but Jan CPI is important. Multiple factors still support upside though. 49ers win better for markets, FYI.
VIDEO: With S&P 500 at 5,000, we highlight the key drivers around markets and most remain supportive, except for the unknown leanings of the Fed in coming weeks Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:48). https://vimeo. com/912102451/b3338d44f9? share=copy The S&P 500 closed decisively above 5,000 in the...
- First Word
Case for even STRONGER 2024 emerging. Lunar New Year starts 2/10 and 2024 is Year of the Dragon. Since 1871, S&P 500 up 13% median gain = 5,350. Since 1979, Russell 2000 outperforms 88% of time.
VIDEO: Chinese new year starts 2/10 and 2024 is the year of the Dragon. Since 1871, equities do particularly well during the Dragon years, gaining 12%. And small-caps outperform 88% of the time. Please click below to watch our Macro Minute (duration: 4:04). https://vimeo. com/911414018/741790b18a? share=copy The S&P 500 touched...