First Word
A "hawkish cut" is consensus for Wed FOMC, but this is also a "market clearing" event, hence, December rally still intact.
We still expect the S&P 500 to finish 2025 achieving new all-time highs, reaching 7,000-7,300. But the path seems labored, and in the first days...
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First Word
MARKETING DECK: Supercycles intact. Wall of worries growing. Risk/reward positive.
NOVEMBER: FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN INTACT = UP NOVEMBERSTOCKS UP 6 MONTHS IN A ROW = NOV UP3Q25 EPS: MARGINS EXPANDING = POSITIVEFUND MANAGER CHASEWALL OF WORRY:(I)...
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First Word
Some understandable "chop" ahead to digest +2% October gains. But we see multiple reasons for S&P 500 to gain in November.
The S&P 500 is on track to close up 2% for October. Looking back at the month, the Oct 10th swoon (-3%) triggered many to...
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First Word
Key takeaway Fed presser: inflation close to target but jobs is weak = dovish. Trump-Xi meeting is "12" on a scale of 1 to 10 = positive for stocks.
The S&P 500 closed essentially "flat" Wednesday after the Fed FOMC Oct rate decision. The cut of -25bp was expected, but Fed Chair Powell's comments...
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First Word
Heavy week for 3Q25 EPS earnings. Polymarket shows expectations rising for "softer" Sept CPI reading.
Video_: _Sept Core CPI is reported this Friday. The first govt "macro report" since the shutdown started, which means investors will put a lot of...
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First Word
VIX surge to 25 shows "fear" creeping in. AAII flips negative again, which we view as contrarian positive. We still see S&P 500 7,000 by year-end.
The S&P 500 is up +1.17% so far this week and down -0.9% for the month. Not bad. But the level of "apprehension" for equities...
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First Word
US-China trade rhetoric heats up. 2025 proving to be worst year for fund manager in decades, setting up for performance chasing
Video_: _Markets were roiled by China headlines Tuesday, but we ultimately see this as noise. The bigger dynamic at play is the positive seasonals and...
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First Word
We are keeping our eyes on 5 things in Oct. Key is seasonally strong = S&P 500 7,000 intact
Video_: _The govt shutdown is dovish because it is putting downward pressure on economy = dovish and it is not raising inflation pressures = dovish. ...
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First Word
Polymarket shows 96% probability shutdown to last beyond 9 more days = dovish Fed
Video_: _NY Fed 1-yr expectations rose in Sept, reflecting anticipated tariff impacts, but the longer-term remained stable at 3%. This is positive. And coupled with...
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First Word
History shows probabilities favor S&P 500 7,000 by YE25 given YTD gains. Gov't shutdown = no jobs report Friday but weak ADP = "dovish" Fed
The government shutdown started at Wed 12:01am ET and this means that we will not be getting data from BLS or any agency until the...
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