Powell Says Fed Will Not Allow Large Overshoot on Inflation

Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell answered a letter from Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) outlining concerns about a potentially significant rise in inflation. His response gave some more contours to the Fed’s intentions around it’s mysterious Adjustable Inflation Target (AIT) framework. The Fed chairman usually avoids tying himself into any obligatory statements and tends to shy away from hard numbers but did seem to indicate some of the more extreme speculations about what the Fed could do around inflation in the media are hyperbolic. Powell by and large stuck closely to the script he has recited so well for months. However, he elaborated that he didn’t see a future where inflation substantially exceeds 2% for a prolonged period. He underscored that regardless of the new framework the Fed will always pursue its dual mandate.

Whoever leaked the Biden capital gains plan this week may have done Jay Powell a favor by proxy. Going into the upcoming Fed meeting, 1-year inflation expectations rose to 3.7%, which was the highest level in 9 years. This was up pretty significantly from 3.1% the prior month. Even the whiff of tax increases should help to assuage raising inflation expectations and make a ‘squeeze’ less likely. The real takeaway is that Powell moderated the comments of some of the ultra-dovish Fed members that have been raising the specter of allowing 3% inflation. This is accompanied by a flurry of other bullish activity across the economy.

You are trying to access FSI member-only content.
You need to have an active FSI Macro, or FSI Pro subcription in order to read this article.
If you are already a member at FSInsight, please Sign In here. If you don’t have a subscription to FSInsight yet, you can sign up below.

Choose one of our yearly plans to save nearly 20%

We accept crypto via BitPay for yearly subscriptions.
    • Macro
      FSI Macro
      billed anually
      Get access to all the macro research on FSInsight
      • Tom Lee's First Word
      • View from Tom Lee
      • Signal From Noise
      • Portfolio Strategy
      • Technical Analysis
      • Granny Shots – Stock Ideas
      • US Policy
      • Live Conference Calls with Q&A
      First Month Free!
    • Crypto
      FSI Digital Assets
      billed anually
      Get access to all the crypto research on FSInsight
      • Crypto Blasts
      • Tom's Take on Crypto
      • Crypto Weekly Newsletter
      • BitDigest Daily Newsletter
      • Crypto Technical Analysis
      • Benchmark Indices Review
      • Bitcoin Valuation & Misery Indexes
      • Live Conference Calls with Q&A
      First Month Free!
    • Macro + Crypto
      FSI Pro
      billed anually
      Get access to all the exclusive research on FSInsight
      • Looking at code?
      • I am hidden!
      • FSI Macro
      • +
      • FSI Digital Assets
      • Designed by
      • HANGAR115
      • -
      First Month Free!

More from the author

Disclosures (show)

Don't Miss Out
First Month Free

first 500 users only

FSInsight logo
150 East 52nd St, 3rd Floor, New York, NY 10022

Subscribe to our Free Weekly Report

An insitutional-grade report delivered to your inbox every week.

© 2021 FSInsight. All rights reserved. Developed by HANGAR115.

Illustrations by Karl Wimer.